In 2024, Nate’s model accurately predicted the exact electoral map.

He doesn’t do any polling. He aggregates other pollsters, weights it based on past performance and then uses other factors (he calls them fundamentals) to produce an outcome. And I think it’s misguided to suggest that Democratic leadership is looking at Nate’s polls to reinforce their own positions.

Here’s a quote from a column he wrote for the NYT

It may even feel as though we’re Ping-Ponging between radically different futures, never quite certain what lies around the bend. Yet on the whole in 2024, polling did not experience much of a miss and had a reasonable year. Ms. Harris led by only one point in my final national polling average. And Donald Trump led in five of seven key states, albeit incredibly narrowly. The final polling averages were correct in 48 of 50 states. The final Times/Siena national poll (including third-party candidates) had Mr. Trump one point ahead. There was plenty of data to support a Trump win.

Remember that the Biden campaign had an internal poll showing Trump winning ~48 states in a total landslide victory, but they maintained that Biden was the best candidate.

I’m reminded of this Nate Silver quote from the election:

Democrats, however — and here, I’m not referring so much Silver Bulletin subscribers but in the broader universe online — often get angry with you when you only halfway agree with them. And I really think this difference in personality profiles tells you a little something about why Trump won: Trump was happy to take on all comers, whereas with Democrats, disagreement on any hot-button topic (say, COVID school closures or Biden’s age) will have you cast out as a heretic. That’s not a good way to build a majority, and now Democrats no longer have one.

You might check to see if Eater has a site for your city/area

🐬 Improvised Underwater Timekeeping for Dolphins:

An intelligent dolphin could adapt to underwater timekeeping by observing natural cycles, biological cues, and marine phenomena. Here’s how:

1. Harnessing Natural Rhythms

   • Tidal Changes: Dolphins could monitor the ebb and flow of tides, which occur predictably based on the lunar cycle. Changes in water current speed, temperature, or pressure could serve as cues for time measurement. • Day-Night Cycles: Despite being underwater, ambient light penetration varies with time of day. Dolphins with sensitive vision could detect shifts in light intensity or color. • Marine Sounds: The ocean environment is rich with natural sounds that vary throughout the day, such as coral reef activity during daylight hours or nocturnal hunting sounds.

2. Biological Cues

   • Internal Circadian Rhythms: Dolphins have well-developed biological clocks that could help them estimate time intervals based on their innate circadian rhythms. • Heartbeat or Breathing Patterns: They could track their heart rate or breathing intervals to measure short durations.

3. Environmental Markers

   • Bubble Streams: Dolphins could use their breath to create bubble trails or patterns and observe their rise time or behavior as a rough timing mechanism. • Floating Particles: They could monitor the sinking or rising of particles like algae or debris to estimate time.

4. Intelligence and Communication

   • Echo-Location as a Timer: Dolphins use echolocation effectively. They might develop a way to measure time based on how long sound waves take to bounce back from consistent underwater structures. • Social Synchronization: In groups, they could rely on collective signals, such as patterned clicks or whistles, to denote the passage of specific intervals.

5. Innovative Tools

   • Natural Hourglasses: They could manipulate objects like sediment-filled shells, observing how long it takes particles to settle or rise when shaken. • Thermal Layers: Dolphins could detect thermal gradients or changes in water temperature at specific times of day.

The Passenger is mild… but only half the story. You want to read the companion novel Stella Maris too

Some of his books are fucked up. The Road and Blood Meridian are stomach turning, gut-wrenching explorations of the awful side of humans.

All the Pretty Horses is: young man likes horses. Moves to Mexico to work on a ranch. Young man falls in love with woman. Hijinks. horses. Done

• All the Pretty Horses and The Crossing are beautiful western novels by Cormac McCarthy. Both are very much “a boy and his horse” kind of stories about learning to be yourself. They’re loosely related and there’s a third book that brings the boys together and concludes their stories

• The Jungle and Oil! by Upton Sinclair are novelizations of Sinclair’s investigative journalism work in the meat packing industry and the nascent workers rights movement respectively. Oil! was very loosely adapted into the film There Will Be Blood (the film covers maybe the first 3-4 chapters by greatly expanding upon the material

• Hatchet by Gary Paulsen was a very impactful book for me as a child. It’s a YA novel, but still worth a read. The main character Brian survives a plane crash in the Canadian wilderness and is forced to find a way to survive on his own

A few more recent novels that I enjoyed:

• Prophet Song by Paul Lynch. Won the 2024 Booker Prize (best English language novel) about an authoritarian government taking power in Ireland and how that unfolds from the perspective of a mother with young children. It’s a hard read, but very well written

• Our Share of Night by Mariana Enriquez. Translated into English. A friend described it as “sexy witches in South America deal with authoritarian rule.” And that’s pretty close…

• Same Bed Different Dreams by Ed Park. A semi-fictionalized history of the Korean Peninsula and the desire to have a unified identity. Many people come to the peninsula (same bed) with very different goals for its use (different dreams). Really fascinating book and engaging

• Tomorrow, and Tomorrow and Tomorrow by Gabrielle Zevin. Follows a trio of friends as they explore the world of video game design. Starts in the early 80s and runs through the 2000s. Reminder me very much of the show Halt and Catch Fire.

• My Friends by Hisham Matar. Follows a Libyan immigrant living in England in the 80s through 2010s as he wrestles with his identity, his homeland, his friends and family. Khaled’s closest friends serve as foils to his own feelings, reacting to the same circumstances very differently from himself

My top ten-ish tv shows

1. The Wire
2. Bojack Horseman
3. Patriot
4. The Americans
5. Better Off Ted
6. Arrested Development
7. Pushing Daisies
8. Gravity Falls
9. The Bear

Honorable Mentions

1. Over the garden wall
2. Luther
3. Friday Night Lights
4. The Queen’s Gambit
5. GLOW
6. Mindhunter
7. Sports Night
8. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
9. Atlanta

On my fifth rewatch right now. Just started S2

Hackers 1995

Obsidian might work for you

Surprised no one has mentioned The Expanse series. A ton of world building in very different kinds of environments. Space stations, small ships, big ships, generation ships, asteroids, moons, planets.

The environments are well thought out in how the residents would need to adapt

Columbus is a great little city in a not so great state. The local politics are quite progressive and the food and bar scene is quite nice. There was a decently sized queer community when I lived there a decade ago, and I’d expect it to continue to flourish as long as a major university is nearby.

Winters are cold. Summers are hot. The weather is what it is 🤷🏻‍♀️

http://logicalincrements.com

I wonder if you’d like Sleigh Bells. Twee pop vocals over grungy guitar. A lot of fun

Gosh. I hadn’t thought about Indian in the cupboard in years

Not OP, but I almost exclusively read novels and non fiction via audiobooks. For context, I’m on pace for 70 books this year.

My main reason for audiobooks is I having a driving commute. Two hours a day round trip. Audiobooks keep me sane in a way that podcasts or music do not. I also do audiobooks when doing chores around the house.

Second, I struggle to focus on reading a book on my phone. Too many distractions and I think the reading experience is subpar. I do have an eInk reader, but I haven’t charged it in years because it’s easier to do audiobooks.

Physical books are rare in my home, but that’s a self-reinforcing cycle since I enjoy audiobooks so much.

Daddy would you like some sausages?

1. Overnight oats
2. Yogurt with frozen fruit and granola (parfait)
3. Granola/protein bar of choice
4. Hard boiled eggs
5. Peanut butter toast

Easy. Add a section to your robots.txt file.