It seems like they are running out of time.

They are running low on war material and are basically going from factory to front, but their production rate is 1/10 of their loss rate. We’ve already seen drops in losses (like artillery systems) compared to months ago, as they don’t have replacements, and have to lower the quantity they use.

Their economy is imploding (interest rates just hit 20%). The non-defense industry can’t pay for their loans and 1/3 of companies are at risk of bankruptcy in the next 6 months. But they can’t stop the war or their economy (held up by defense industry) will crater into a deep recession.

Their population is indifferent to the war, and doesn’t want to sacrifice more to help fight it. So unlikely to accept another mobilization or increased hardships.

And Ukraine just got approval to use foreign weapons in Russia.

So, yeah, Russia is probably a bit stressed at the moment.

I suspect the storage facilities are close to being completed emptied of working or easily fixable pieces and all that’s left is scrap/spare part pieces.

They may be receiving, or could receive in the future, artillery pieces from allies (ex. NK) that could change their ability to keep up losses.

Regarding China, I don’t think China would militarily invade a stable Russia (not civil wared). I think it’s more likely they will economically dominate them, with the implicit threat of militarily/covert action if Russia tries and recover their economic sovereignty in those dominated regions.

This news site usually has a graph with the loss percentage of the initial total and how much of the initial total is active vs reserve.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/10/12/russo-ukrainian-war-day-962-north-korean-troops-train-in-russia-for-potential-ukraine-deployment/

To answer your question, the chart shows it to be ~6,120 total artillery systems left. At a loss of 50 a day (assuming they don’t tailor down their use as they lose availability [massive assumption]), they should completely run out in about 122 days / 4 months (~ February 2025).

Obviously, that is unlikely to happen and I expect that they will tailor down their use closer to their production rate (I don’t know what their production rate is) before the end of the year, as they completely run out of any reserves.

I think they probably ment to put special equipment’s “99” under vehicles and fuel tanks. Otherwise, they would have destroyed 3% of the total destroyed special equipment.

I believe she stated she is not going to make a response until after her tour finishes, to protect her fans.

With ferries and heavy rail over the Kerch Strait Bridge unlikely, it seems Russia is left with the new rail line being built through lower Ukraine (don’t know if its finished yet) and/or trucks across the bridge (not sure the volume it can accommodate). Seems like Crimean logistics are going to be constrained in the short term.

My recollection is that the ruble is restricted (partially/mostly?) from being traded by the Russian government. So, most of the ruble currency exchange is on the black market, which wouldn’t be what Google finance shows.

I semi recall reading something a year or so ago about the black market ruble value being half of the publicized value, so maybe what she is referencing is a recent significant drop in the black market ruble value.

I’m pretty sure the 3rd pre-war bridge was taken out (yesterday?). So, all Russia has left is the pontoon bridges (2?) and possibly one was taken out earlier today (1 left?).

To me, it seems Ukraine is trying to trap troops and equipment below the river and get a large personnel surrenders and equipment recovery.

Just finished V Rising. I really liked it. For those who don’t know and are curious, it’s one of those games where, if you can’t beat a boss, you just have to get better. There’s some small things that make a fight easier, but it basically comes down to you understanding the enemy and learning to play better.

No particular order, but it seems I hit quite a few different genres.

• Starcraft
• Stardew Valley
• Subnautica
• Final Fantasy Tactics
• Infamous
• Hades
• Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
• Halo 2
• Super Smash Brothers Melee
• Rome: Total War

Relevant sections of the article:

The EU Council finalized the agreement earlier on May 21, which would provide Ukraine with between 2.5 billion and 3 billion euros ($2.7-3.26 billion) annually, with most of it allocated to Kyiv’s military needs.

The European Commission then announced later in the day that the “resources will be available to support Ukraine starting from July 2024, with bi-annual payments.”

The distribution will be reviewed on an annual basis.

My understanding is that some of the benefits China would get from invading Taiwan is the control of Taiwan’s world-leading semiconductor industry. So making it public knowledge that any invading force (i.e. China) would not be able to take over their production capabilities is a small deterrent.

Besides the additional Norway airplanes, this was new information to me:

The primary bottleneck to the Ukrainian Air Force’s fielding F-16s in quantity is not limited numbers of airframes but how many combat pilots and ground crew Kyiv can spare from the actual war, to train on transition to the F-16, Cavoli said.

According to Ukrainian mil-bloggers, the first six F-16s with pilots and ground crew will reach Ukraine in June or July. Earlier deadlines had predicted the arrival in April or May.

Mods, perhaps a weekly post like this would be beneficial? Lowering the bar to entry with some available support and helping to keep converts.

The cost of one “Orlan-10” drone is estimated between $87,000 and $120,000, as reported by the UK’s Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies.

Source: https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/01/13/russian-drone-manufacturer-orlan-10-ramps-up-production-despite-sanctions-inform-napalm-reports/

From the article:

Voters who chose “uninstructed delegation” in Wisconsin’s presidential primary Tuesday more than doubled the 20,000 votes President Joe Biden won the state by in 2020, sending warning signs for his reelection chances in the battleground state.

Voters displeased with Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war organized into a “Listen to Wisconsin” campaign that mirrored other states like Michigan and Minnesota, where a similar “uncommitted” option took about 13% and 19% of the vote in the Democratic primary, respectively.

In Wisconsin, “uninstructed delegation” represented 9% of the vote on the Democratic side as of 10:15 p.m., taking about 42,269 votes. Around 408,610 voters have selected Biden as their choice, or 88%. About 3% voted for Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips, who has ended his campaign and endorsed Biden.

Thought this was a cool part of the article:

The acoustic sensors gather uncharacteristic sounds from the environment before artificial intelligence is used to establish whether anomalies are incoming kamikaze drones or missiles.

Dr Thomas Withington, an expert in air defence at the Royal United Services Institute said: “It’s interesting that this technology is making a comeback because it was all the rage before the invention of the radar in the 1920s and 1930s

“History, in a sense, comes full circle, but with the adaptation of the technological age that we have today.”

Interesting stuff.

I’d suggest reducing the decimals (significant figures) to a more readable amount (like 1 or 2). Additionally, inconsistent number of decimals makes it harder to compare down a column. Ex: 2.23 instead of 2.23758366384763.