But there’s considerable uncertainty in those numbers…
Our averages also show Trump leading in most swing states, though there is enough uncertainty that Biden could easily be ahead in enough to win the Electoral College.
TLDR: polls schmolls
Bullshit.
even the direct link itself shows Biden ahead in the majority of polls they use to calculate the average.
Not by enough, but keep in mind this is all based on essentially 2,000 people who answer their telephone for random strangers and then talk to them for 15 minutes about their beliefs. The largest sample size is 9k people. There are 160 million voters.
Fuck polls.
Wtf, Kennedy has 10% of the vote?? There’s no way.
people who answer their telephone for random strangers and then talk to them for 15 minutes about their beliefs.
This alone makes me doubt every poll ever. What kind of monster answers the phone and talks to a stranger about politics?
This alone makes me doubt every poll ever. What kind of monster answers the phone and talks to a stranger about politics?
There was a time 30-40 years ago where you didn’t get robocalls and scam calls all the time. Prime Boomer years. So there is some behavior from that time/generation. Senior citizens also also the phone frequently because they are worried about missing bad news or engagement opportunities from family. There is now a 100% overlap with the groups “boomer” and “senior citizen”.
Most GenX remember this time, but are young enough to know most calls are scams or robocalls. Millennials and younger never knew a time without robocalls.
Seniors are also a lot more likely to even have the option to answer the phone. The rest of us have to work, clean house, feed kids, etc
The clear advantage voting for Trump is, that you may never have to vote again.
Again, the reminder that national polls are pointless. Washington, Oregon, California are all voting Biden, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas are all voting Trump.
The states to watch are as follows and they have been leaning Trump harder and harder.
Pennsylvania - Biden vs. Trump, tied at 48. Add Kennedy, Stein and West and it’s a Trump win +2.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan - Trump +3 in a one on one, +2 if you include Kennedy, Stein and West.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin - Tied in a one on one race, Biden +2 including Kennedy, Stein and West.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Biden cannot win without these three states, full stop.
Other states to watch:
Arizona - Trump +6 to +7
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada - Trump +8 to +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico - No polling recent enough to be remotely useful.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/Biden fans are delusional thinking they can win Florida, Georgia and North Carolina:
Florida - Trump +8 to +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/Georgia - Trump +6 to +7
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/North Carolina - Trump +2 to +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/C’mon Joe! Whatever you’re doing isn’t working. Step it up or we get Trump!
This is why I hate polls. One dickhead says one is leading and another dickhead is saying the other is leading. And this was posted a few hours before your article. Fuck polls, go vote.
