Washington and Kiev are negotiating a bilateral security agreement that mirrors the 10-year commitments Ukraine has entered into with several European powers.
there is some truth to what you say, at least “just enough to keep Ukraine alive as long as possible but not to actually let Ukraine win”.
However I would disagree with over-generalised statement “Nobody actually cares about Ukraine except for russia”. Poland, for example, very much does not want to have common border with russia, esp. after this war. While US has a luxury of being able to ignore what’s happening it is not the case for some (most?) EU countries. Which also explains why some contribute enormously when comparing their contributions to respective country’s GDP. Ukraine independence also can be used by US as leverage against russia in the future, so while not humanitarian in principle, US has huge interest in Ukraine status.
There is a chance for Ukrainian win on battlefield without foreign soldiers, but it means lots of equipment. That window is quickly closing and then, yes, the only way to move forward will be foreign intervention.
Virtually everyone else’s opinion is meaningless. Russia has controlled Ukraine for centuries. It doesn’t fundamentally change the strategic situation. Sure, Poland feels vulnerable. Moldova is terrified. The Baltics, the Scandanavians, etc.
But fundamentally the EU and the US position doesn’t change whether or not Russia controls Ukraine. They will do their best to make Russia bleed for the ground they take, but they are unwilling to do what it takes for Russia to lose.
Why? Because Russia has signaled it is important to them. They are putting their economy on a war footing. They outproduce US + EU in artillery. They were willing to totally reroute their gas exports. Willing to sacrifice a terrifyingly high number of soldiers and equipment.
The ideological and strategic incentives for Russia make this a priority for them.
So if you actually want to stop Russia, you are risking WW3. And for what? For some poor backwater corrupt eastern European Slavic country? It simply isn’t worth the costs.
The EU has more incentive, as you point out, because Russia is on their border. And if WW3 starts, it will come from something like France sending troops to Ukraine.
I still don’t know whether that’s Macron showing diplomatic bluster in an attempt to escalate the rhetoric OR an actual threat of military intervention.
I believe Ukraine passed the tipping point of being able to succesful defend this war on their own. Their reckless failed offensive
last year guaranteed they eventually lose this war. All the land theyve lost right now they have no ability to take back.
So their position can literally only get worse- lose more land- until they eventually settle.
You can send them all the equipment in the world. They played lassiez Faire with their mobilization and simply don’t have the manpower to use that equipment. They didn’t bother building defensive lines and now Russia has captured nearly 20 miles worth of territory in less than a month in the Adveevka direction.
Their position is becoming untenable long term and it’s becoming increasingly clear. So how much is everyone willing to sacrifice for Ukraine? Are we ready to send our boys to die? I’m personally not.
there is some truth to what you say, at least “just enough to keep Ukraine alive as long as possible but not to actually let Ukraine win”.
However I would disagree with over-generalised statement “Nobody actually cares about Ukraine except for russia”. Poland, for example, very much does not want to have common border with russia, esp. after this war. While US has a luxury of being able to ignore what’s happening it is not the case for some (most?) EU countries. Which also explains why some contribute enormously when comparing their contributions to respective country’s GDP. Ukraine independence also can be used by US as leverage against russia in the future, so while not humanitarian in principle, US has huge interest in Ukraine status.
There is a chance for Ukrainian win on battlefield without foreign soldiers, but it means lots of equipment. That window is quickly closing and then, yes, the only way to move forward will be foreign intervention.
The power brokers here are EU / US / Russia
Virtually everyone else’s opinion is meaningless. Russia has controlled Ukraine for centuries. It doesn’t fundamentally change the strategic situation. Sure, Poland feels vulnerable. Moldova is terrified. The Baltics, the Scandanavians, etc.
But fundamentally the EU and the US position doesn’t change whether or not Russia controls Ukraine. They will do their best to make Russia bleed for the ground they take, but they are unwilling to do what it takes for Russia to lose.
Why? Because Russia has signaled it is important to them. They are putting their economy on a war footing. They outproduce US + EU in artillery. They were willing to totally reroute their gas exports. Willing to sacrifice a terrifyingly high number of soldiers and equipment.
The ideological and strategic incentives for Russia make this a priority for them.
So if you actually want to stop Russia, you are risking WW3. And for what? For some poor backwater corrupt eastern European Slavic country? It simply isn’t worth the costs.
The EU has more incentive, as you point out, because Russia is on their border. And if WW3 starts, it will come from something like France sending troops to Ukraine.
I still don’t know whether that’s Macron showing diplomatic bluster in an attempt to escalate the rhetoric OR an actual threat of military intervention.
I believe Ukraine passed the tipping point of being able to succesful defend this war on their own. Their reckless failed offensive last year guaranteed they eventually lose this war. All the land theyve lost right now they have no ability to take back.
So their position can literally only get worse- lose more land- until they eventually settle.
You can send them all the equipment in the world. They played lassiez Faire with their mobilization and simply don’t have the manpower to use that equipment. They didn’t bother building defensive lines and now Russia has captured nearly 20 miles worth of territory in less than a month in the Adveevka direction.
Their position is becoming untenable long term and it’s becoming increasingly clear. So how much is everyone willing to sacrifice for Ukraine? Are we ready to send our boys to die? I’m personally not.