jeffw@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 1 年前Biden is on track to beat inflation and lose the presidencywww.vox.comexternal-linkmessage-square26fedilinkarrow-up11arrow-down10
arrow-up11arrow-down1external-linkBiden is on track to beat inflation and lose the presidencywww.vox.comjeffw@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 1 年前message-square26fedilink
minus-squareShunkW@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up0·1 年前Wasn’t 538 wrong about Trump winning in 2016 though?
minus-squareSkepticpunk@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up0·edit-21 年前No. 538 gave Trump the best chances out of any model, which Nate was criticized heavily for. 1-in-3 chances, which is what Trump had in 2016, are still pretty likely.
minus-squarecbarrick@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up0·1 年前Everyone was wrong in 2016. 538 was the least wrong of any model anywhere. And Nate Silver was ridiculed at the time for giving Trump such a high chance of winning, before the election.
Wasn’t 538 wrong about Trump winning in 2016 though?
No. 538 gave Trump the best chances out of any model, which Nate was criticized heavily for. 1-in-3 chances, which is what Trump had in 2016, are still pretty likely.
Everyone was wrong in 2016.
538 was the least wrong of any model anywhere.
And Nate Silver was ridiculed at the time for giving Trump such a high chance of winning, before the election.