ChrisG@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 11 months agoLatest polls ...lemmy.worldimagemessage-square32fedilinkarrow-up10arrow-down10file-text
arrow-up10arrow-down1imageLatest polls ...lemmy.worldChrisG@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 11 months agomessage-square32fedilinkfile-text
minus-squareTropicalDingdong@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up0·11 months agothis looks like a misrepresentation or partial representation of Nate silvers. This looks like polls not probs
minus-squareChrisG@lemmy.worldOPlinkfedilinkarrow-up0·11 months agoKamala Harris leads Donald Trump in 5 battleground states, tied in Georgia, poll finds https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/08/14/harris-trump-poll-swing-states-2024/74794636007/
minus-squareTropicalDingdong@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up0·11 months agoyeah I pay for nates blog, I but the issue I’m taking is with whoever retweeted this. They are conflating polling and probability.
minus-squareunemployedclaquer@sopuli.xyzlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up0·11 months agoNate Silver is a gambler. That’s how he got into this. No disrespect to the actual journalists who’ve worked at 538.
minus-squareneatchee@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up0·11 months agoYou’re saying that the numbers displayed are indicating the % of polls that favor each candidate in that state, not the probability the candidate will win each state overall?
minus-squareTropicalDingdong@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up0·11 months agoSo the text of the tweet says % chance of winning, but the figure seems to show the poll numbers. A poll number isn’t the same as the probability of winning at a given poll number. They are related but not the same. It just looks like maybe the full tweet wasn’t screenshotted? I subscribed to his substack but I’m on mobile and lazy and don’t want to go grab the numbers.
minus-squareFlowVoid@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up0·edit-211 months agoBoth the text and the map show probability, not polls.
this looks like a misrepresentation or partial representation of Nate silvers.
This looks like polls not probs
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in 5 battleground states, tied in Georgia, poll finds
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/08/14/harris-trump-poll-swing-states-2024/74794636007/
yeah I pay for nates blog, I but the issue I’m taking is with whoever retweeted this. They are conflating polling and probability.
Nate Silver is a gambler. That’s how he got into this. No disrespect to the actual journalists who’ve worked at 538.
You’re saying that the numbers displayed are indicating the % of polls that favor each candidate in that state, not the probability the candidate will win each state overall?
So the text of the tweet says % chance of winning, but the figure seems to show the poll numbers.
A poll number isn’t the same as the probability of winning at a given poll number. They are related but not the same.
It just looks like maybe the full tweet wasn’t screenshotted?
I subscribed to his substack but I’m on mobile and lazy and don’t want to go grab the numbers.
Both the text and the map show probability, not polls.