The popular vote isn’t going to be close, Trump hasn’t won a popular vote yet.
The electoral college vote looks like it’s going to be a squeaker.
My #1 prediction is that voting will be down from 2020 because Covid increased voting by mail and we don’t have that this time around. Generally Republicans do better when fewer people vote.
Overall, Harris looks a lot stronger than last week. Even losing Georgia, clawing back PA from Trump and moving Wisconsin fron toss-up to Harris gives her EXACTLY 270.
On the map:
I think this is the first time since Biden dropped out that any candidate has hit the magic 270 number.
I’m not so sure. Are these polls taking into account that abortion is on the ballot in a lot of states? If the question is Trump v Harris i believe these polls, but every time abortion has been on a ballot it drives democrats out to the polls and their candidates win with larger margins than expected.
I can’t remember the numbers, but the recent NPR Politics podcast mentioned that a large percentage (upper 90s I think) of voters are eligible to mail in vote this election. Many with no reason necessary.
I’m personally voting at my polling place on the day, but that’s because I have the time, line in a small town and don’t want to burden the counters with mail to open and verify.
It sounds like even Republicans realize the value of mail in voting, as Dejoy is even reviewing the handling of mail in ballots at USPS.
The popular vote isn’t going to be close, Trump hasn’t won a popular vote yet.
The electoral college vote looks like it’s going to be a squeaker.
My #1 prediction is that voting will be down from 2020 because Covid increased voting by mail and we don’t have that this time around. Generally Republicans do better when fewer people vote.
But let’s run the numbers and check the map:
Arizona: Toss Up, Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada: Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Harris +5, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Georgia: Trump +1, +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
North Carolina: Toss Up, Harris +1, +3, Trump +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Pennsylvania: Harris +3, +5, +6, Trump +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan: Harris +1, +3, +5, Tie, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin: Harris +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota: Harris +4, +5, +7, +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Overall, Harris looks a lot stronger than last week. Even losing Georgia, clawing back PA from Trump and moving Wisconsin fron toss-up to Harris gives her EXACTLY 270.
On the map:
I think this is the first time since Biden dropped out that any candidate has hit the magic 270 number.
I’m not so sure. Are these polls taking into account that abortion is on the ballot in a lot of states? If the question is Trump v Harris i believe these polls, but every time abortion has been on a ballot it drives democrats out to the polls and their candidates win with larger margins than expected.
Here are the states where abortion is on the ballot:
https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/dashboard/ballot-tracker-status-of-abortion-related-state-constitutional-amendment-measures/
MT, NV, AZ, CO, SD, NB, MO, FL, MD, NY.
CO, MD, and NY are all voting Harris anyway.
MT, SD, NB, MO are all heavy Trump states.
While I’d like to say it could make a difference in NV, AZ, or FL, everything is looking like it won’t.
People can support abortion and still vote Trump.
Florida: Trump +2, +3, +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
Florida Abortion Amendment: +38 https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4801375-florida-abortion-ballot-initiative/
So abortion leads Harris in Florida by a lot.
I can’t remember the numbers, but the recent NPR Politics podcast mentioned that a large percentage (upper 90s I think) of voters are eligible to mail in vote this election. Many with no reason necessary.
I’m personally voting at my polling place on the day, but that’s because I have the time, line in a small town and don’t want to burden the counters with mail to open and verify.
It sounds like even Republicans realize the value of mail in voting, as Dejoy is even reviewing the handling of mail in ballots at USPS.