it’s not a thing that happens in reality if it were you’d point to actual data

I already explained why this is a bad goalpost. But even under this terrible goalpost you’re still not correct.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spoiler_effect

See the section under “Notable unintentional spoilers”

not randomly generated test cases where the hypothesis works assuming everyone has to vote and is going to vote.

That’s already accounted for. The gray dots are non voters. Including non voters doesn’t actually change the math, because the math is the overlap of circles. It is already only accounting for the subset of people who are voters.