Florida is nearing toss-up status as poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished
www.independent.co.uk
Race and age of Florida respondents seemed to correlate with which candidate they supported
  • usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.mlOP
    0·
    2 years ago

    Polling error has historically moved in inconsistent direction. Data goes back further than 2020. In 2012, Democrats were underestimated in florida by ~2 points. Romney was up 1.5% in Florida poll average vs Obama winning Florida by 0.9%

    Assuming it certain to go that way is not a given either. My point is that you cannot be certain about it

    • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
      0·
      2 years ago

      My point is that you cannot be certain about it

      Yeah and thats not really a point. Everything has uncertainty. We have to and do make judgements in the face of uncertainty of reality all the time.

      If you choose to live in a fact based reality rather, this is the thing we have.

      • usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.mlOP
        0·
        2 years ago

        That’s not how your earlier comments are phrased. The earlier comments declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist. How is entirely ignoring the 2012 election any more real than saying we can’t be sure?

        • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
          0·
          2 years ago

          declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist

          You just lack reading comprehension. The previous comments said, “the last most recent estimate of structural bias”, which was Trump v Biden 2020.

          I get it. You’ve got an axe to grind.

          • usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.mlOP
            0·
            2 years ago

            My response was more so to the “you don’t get to ‘wish’” part. It could go the same way, it could not. It’s not consistent year to year. Assuming it is when long term data does not support that, isn’t helpful

            Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling. All the polls in our data set combine for a weighted average statistical bias of 0.3 points toward Democrats. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases — and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office — but there is no pattern from year to year

            https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/

            No where am I claiming that Harris definitely will necessarily be underestimated, I am saying it is possible. Or perhaps even just underestimated by less. Dismissing the possibility out of hand by N=1 is what I am responding to