Washington and Kiev are negotiating a bilateral security agreement that mirrors the 10-year commitments Ukraine has entered into with several European powers.
it doesn’t have to. main reason for this war being this long is reluctance of western partners to deliver equipment necessary to keep initiative in present state of war. As a result - Ukrainian army get decimated while russians are getting better and everything awful they do: war crimes, defences, offense etc. Time is running out to help Ukraine and calls to “bust give up now” are self-fulfilling prophecy. I’m a pacifist at heart but in this case there is no way of stopping russian expansion (present and future) than to supply Ukraine with all necessary to win. Otherwise 1-2yr after “negotiations” we’ll have v2.0 where russia chomps off next piece of Ukraine (or other bordering country) while the rest of the world will keep repeating “what’s the point? we gave in last time, might as well save ourselves the trouble and give up now”. Solution by escalation is still possible as russia still has upper limit they are bumping against, but they keep on raising it so soon enough nothing will help, and that’s what russians hope for.
The goal was always to help just enough to keep Ukraine alive as long as possible but not to actually let Ukraine win.
It’s because the purpose is to hurt Russia and help our MIC. Everything else is rhetoric and propaganda. Russia has controlled Ukraine for centuries. Nobody actually cares about Ukraine strategically except for Russia. They are willing to sacrifice infinitely more for Ukraine than the West.
The only way to really save Ukraine at this point is to send troops. And that isn’t happening unless we are on the brink of WW3. Which may very well happen, but I think probably not for at least another 5~10 years and Ukraine war will over by then.
there is some truth to what you say, at least “just enough to keep Ukraine alive as long as possible but not to actually let Ukraine win”.
However I would disagree with over-generalised statement “Nobody actually cares about Ukraine except for russia”. Poland, for example, very much does not want to have common border with russia, esp. after this war. While US has a luxury of being able to ignore what’s happening it is not the case for some (most?) EU countries. Which also explains why some contribute enormously when comparing their contributions to respective country’s GDP. Ukraine independence also can be used by US as leverage against russia in the future, so while not humanitarian in principle, US has huge interest in Ukraine status.
There is a chance for Ukrainian win on battlefield without foreign soldiers, but it means lots of equipment. That window is quickly closing and then, yes, the only way to move forward will be foreign intervention.
Virtually everyone else’s opinion is meaningless. Russia has controlled Ukraine for centuries. It doesn’t fundamentally change the strategic situation. Sure, Poland feels vulnerable. Moldova is terrified. The Baltics, the Scandanavians, etc.
But fundamentally the EU and the US position doesn’t change whether or not Russia controls Ukraine. They will do their best to make Russia bleed for the ground they take, but they are unwilling to do what it takes for Russia to lose.
Why? Because Russia has signaled it is important to them. They are putting their economy on a war footing. They outproduce US + EU in artillery. They were willing to totally reroute their gas exports. Willing to sacrifice a terrifyingly high number of soldiers and equipment.
The ideological and strategic incentives for Russia make this a priority for them.
So if you actually want to stop Russia, you are risking WW3. And for what? For some poor backwater corrupt eastern European Slavic country? It simply isn’t worth the costs.
The EU has more incentive, as you point out, because Russia is on their border. And if WW3 starts, it will come from something like France sending troops to Ukraine.
I still don’t know whether that’s Macron showing diplomatic bluster in an attempt to escalate the rhetoric OR an actual threat of military intervention.
I believe Ukraine passed the tipping point of being able to succesful defend this war on their own. Their reckless failed offensive
last year guaranteed they eventually lose this war. All the land theyve lost right now they have no ability to take back.
So their position can literally only get worse- lose more land- until they eventually settle.
You can send them all the equipment in the world. They played lassiez Faire with their mobilization and simply don’t have the manpower to use that equipment. They didn’t bother building defensive lines and now Russia has captured nearly 20 miles worth of territory in less than a month in the Adveevka direction.
Their position is becoming untenable long term and it’s becoming increasingly clear. So how much is everyone willing to sacrifice for Ukraine? Are we ready to send our boys to die? I’m personally not.
it doesn’t have to. main reason for this war being this long is reluctance of western partners to deliver equipment necessary to keep initiative in present state of war. As a result - Ukrainian army get decimated while russians are getting better and everything awful they do: war crimes, defences, offense etc. Time is running out to help Ukraine and calls to “bust give up now” are self-fulfilling prophecy. I’m a pacifist at heart but in this case there is no way of stopping russian expansion (present and future) than to supply Ukraine with all necessary to win. Otherwise 1-2yr after “negotiations” we’ll have v2.0 where russia chomps off next piece of Ukraine (or other bordering country) while the rest of the world will keep repeating “what’s the point? we gave in last time, might as well save ourselves the trouble and give up now”. Solution by escalation is still possible as russia still has upper limit they are bumping against, but they keep on raising it so soon enough nothing will help, and that’s what russians hope for.
The goal was always to help just enough to keep Ukraine alive as long as possible but not to actually let Ukraine win.
It’s because the purpose is to hurt Russia and help our MIC. Everything else is rhetoric and propaganda. Russia has controlled Ukraine for centuries. Nobody actually cares about Ukraine strategically except for Russia. They are willing to sacrifice infinitely more for Ukraine than the West.
The only way to really save Ukraine at this point is to send troops. And that isn’t happening unless we are on the brink of WW3. Which may very well happen, but I think probably not for at least another 5~10 years and Ukraine war will over by then.
there is some truth to what you say, at least “just enough to keep Ukraine alive as long as possible but not to actually let Ukraine win”.
However I would disagree with over-generalised statement “Nobody actually cares about Ukraine except for russia”. Poland, for example, very much does not want to have common border with russia, esp. after this war. While US has a luxury of being able to ignore what’s happening it is not the case for some (most?) EU countries. Which also explains why some contribute enormously when comparing their contributions to respective country’s GDP. Ukraine independence also can be used by US as leverage against russia in the future, so while not humanitarian in principle, US has huge interest in Ukraine status.
There is a chance for Ukrainian win on battlefield without foreign soldiers, but it means lots of equipment. That window is quickly closing and then, yes, the only way to move forward will be foreign intervention.
The power brokers here are EU / US / Russia
Virtually everyone else’s opinion is meaningless. Russia has controlled Ukraine for centuries. It doesn’t fundamentally change the strategic situation. Sure, Poland feels vulnerable. Moldova is terrified. The Baltics, the Scandanavians, etc.
But fundamentally the EU and the US position doesn’t change whether or not Russia controls Ukraine. They will do their best to make Russia bleed for the ground they take, but they are unwilling to do what it takes for Russia to lose.
Why? Because Russia has signaled it is important to them. They are putting their economy on a war footing. They outproduce US + EU in artillery. They were willing to totally reroute their gas exports. Willing to sacrifice a terrifyingly high number of soldiers and equipment.
The ideological and strategic incentives for Russia make this a priority for them.
So if you actually want to stop Russia, you are risking WW3. And for what? For some poor backwater corrupt eastern European Slavic country? It simply isn’t worth the costs.
The EU has more incentive, as you point out, because Russia is on their border. And if WW3 starts, it will come from something like France sending troops to Ukraine.
I still don’t know whether that’s Macron showing diplomatic bluster in an attempt to escalate the rhetoric OR an actual threat of military intervention.
I believe Ukraine passed the tipping point of being able to succesful defend this war on their own. Their reckless failed offensive last year guaranteed they eventually lose this war. All the land theyve lost right now they have no ability to take back.
So their position can literally only get worse- lose more land- until they eventually settle.
You can send them all the equipment in the world. They played lassiez Faire with their mobilization and simply don’t have the manpower to use that equipment. They didn’t bother building defensive lines and now Russia has captured nearly 20 miles worth of territory in less than a month in the Adveevka direction.
Their position is becoming untenable long term and it’s becoming increasingly clear. So how much is everyone willing to sacrifice for Ukraine? Are we ready to send our boys to die? I’m personally not.