FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, which was originally published on July 8 and updated on July 16, shows Joe Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.
According to the tracker, Biden is favored to win in 534 out of 1,000 of FiveThirtyEight’s simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in 462. The poll also shows that the simulations indicate that Biden is on track for a three-point win.
The polling website said its forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency.
I don’t understand how “Biden is behind in every swing state” translates to this. I get that they’re taking the state of the economy, the fact that Biden is the incumbent, and other such factors into account, and in a sense that’s the correct thing to do. However, if the election were held now, Biden would probably lose, and by a larger margin than if, for example, the election had been held before the notorious debate. It takes a lot of twisting to make this bad news for Trump.