- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.world
FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, which was originally published on July 8 and updated on July 16, shows Joe Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.
According to the tracker, Biden is favored to win in 534 out of 1,000 of FiveThirtyEight’s simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in 462. The poll also shows that the simulations indicate that Biden is on track for a three-point win.
The polling website said its forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency.
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Duplicate post, original is here:
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Donald Trump’s chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining, according to a new aggregation of polls.
It comes after a Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,601 swing state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found that Trump’s margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina.
In a post on their website, FiveThirtyEight said their latest predictions can be explained by the flurry of swing-state polls that show Biden is encroaching upon Trump’s lead.
In the week before the shooting, national polls had Trump as the favorite to win the White House, leading narrowly in the six key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
An ABC News/Ipsos/Washington Post poll released Thursday found Biden and Trump are tied among registered voters.
Biden’s fitness for office has been called into question since his shaky debate performance against Trump in June in which he muddled his words and appeared to lose his train of thought.
The original article contains 683 words, the summary contains 168 words. Saved 75%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
Literally, earlier today I saw an article claiming Biden falling behind in swing states… Lol
All these pools are bullshit.
I don’t understand how “Biden is behind in every swing state” translates to this. I get that they’re taking the state of the economy, the fact that Biden is the incumbent, and other such factors into account, and in a sense that’s the correct thing to do. However, if the election were held now, Biden would probably lose, and by a larger margin than if, for example, the election had been held before the notorious debate. It takes a lot of twisting to make this bad news for Trump.
From now until election day, ignore literally everything the media hype machine will vomit in order to get your clicks. The only thing you have to do is vote.
So “reject the evidence of your eyes and ears?” Is that your final command?
The only thing these articles do is lull one side into complacency. Get. Out. And. Vote.
The polls are rigged just like they were for 2012. 0 trust in the polls.
We have Right registering as left and left registering as right.
VOTE DAMNIT! THAT’S ALL THAT MATTERS.
Why does it matter?
Don’t just vote, bring a friend!
These headlines/news never reach republicans. We are in two complete different Internets.
And as OP said already: these news do NOT matter. If anything, they are bad, they come across as headlines that attempt to make a lot of voters feel “lazier to vote”, to “not vote at all” because “why even try if we are already going to easily win as you can see?”
Be really careful when falling for these cheap psychology tricks. It’d be best to spam social medias with polls that put Biden a few points behind Trump actually imo, because those are the kind of headlines that inspire you to vote to break the tiny difference. These, as I said, make you believe you don’t have to vote at all because it’s going to be an “easy win”, when actually, it isn’t.
STOP FALLING FOR HEADLINES
So the news should lie to people to help Biden win? Do you ever stop to actually think about what you’re saying?
Anyone remember when 538,com had Hillary’s chances at something like 90%?
Is it possible to block an entire domain from your feed in Lemmy? Say, like NewsWeek?
#StopTheBleeding
#TamponDon
That’s pretty much what he would do with it.
It’s from Newsweek, who also reported that the assassination attempt hadn’t boosted Trump, based on a poll taken before the attempt. Their owners are right-wing and since they bought them, their credibility has taken a hit. I’m not sure what they’re playing at, but it’s probably a safe assumption that they are manipulating the news to help the Republicans.
I could believe this. The RNC was this week, so the media circus was all over it and making them look good because they’re getting paid to do so.
Now they spread word to convince people in swing states that Trump’s chances of winning are in jeopardy to try to get new sympathizers in swing states out to the polls on election day.
I don’t believe it for a second. I’d love if it were true - Biden is fine but yes, his most important qualification this election is “not a fascist” - but Trump outperforms polls consistently. We’re not there yet.
They need to come out STRONGLY with a few key issues to get certain groups locked in for the next few months. They’re already out there today saying Roe v Wade being codified is one, now they need to really sell the adjustments on SC, election reform to fix disenfranchised voters, removing all the corporate protection BS that just got thrown everyone’s way from the last batch of rulings, and get this Israel v Gaza shit into a ceasefire, and hopefully that brings more clear numbers shifting.
It’s still way beyond me who in the fuck could still be undecided at this point.
We need to stop entertaining this narrative. Don’t give them the clicks. Just assume that he will win if we don’t vote like our lives depend on it- cuz, well…
