FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, which was originally published on July 8 and updated on July 16, shows Joe Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.
According to the tracker, Biden is favored to win in 534 out of 1,000 of FiveThirtyEight’s simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in 462. The poll also shows that the simulations indicate that Biden is on track for a three-point win.
The polling website said its forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency.
They need to come out STRONGLY with a few key issues to get certain groups locked in for the next few months. They’re already out there today saying Roe v Wade being codified is one, now they need to really sell the adjustments on SC, election reform to fix disenfranchised voters, removing all the corporate protection BS that just got thrown everyone’s way from the last batch of rulings, and get this Israel v Gaza shit into a ceasefire, and hopefully that brings more clear numbers shifting.
It’s still way beyond me who in the fuck could still be undecided at this point.