Dementia donnie is trying to thwart efforts to help Americans in the wake of two hurricanes. He wants to end democracy as we know it, and there are still people stupid enough to think he should run the place.
SMH.
Maybe the neoliberals should stop trying to throw the race to suck up to corporate donors.
Again.
Money from donors/SuperPACs > winning against Neo-Mussolini
We’ll see if they still feel that way when Mango Mussolini throws them in a camp.
A liberals last thought would be “I wish this labor camp had more female prison guards, that would have made me feel better about executed.”
Hey, say what you will about 2024 Nazis, they’re proud to let white women shoot people in the back of the head.
Very true. Sorry you got downvoted for that.
Obama will spend his final days on Martha’s Vineyard, surrounded by loving grandchildren and giant piles of money.
Meanwhile, its going to be the 1.1M people barred from voting in Florida on Felony Disenfranchisement rules that end up in the camps.
And you fuckers called me crazy for saying there was a concerted propaganda effort to conflate “neoliberal” with “liberal”
Neoliberals are Republicans.
Liberals are Democrats.
Reagan was arguably a neoliberal and Bush a neocon, but current Republicans have moved even further right straight to neofascism. The way that liberal democrats serve corporations over people proves to me that there is no longer a meaningful distinction between liberalism and neoliberalism.
“Kamala Harris is as far right as Ronald Reagan” was not a take I was expecting to see today.
Although given that this is Lemmy I wish I could say I was surprised.
It’s hilarious that you think it isn’t true. Other than hating gay and black people which isn’t actually on an economic axis (necessarily…)
Reagan wasn’t arguably a neoliberal. He was neoliberalism. The governmental policies of that era define the modern Democratic and what was the Republican Party.
It’s not even entirely negative, deinstitutionalization wasn’t done intelligently but there was rampant abuse in the system, for example.
Fuckin told ya! It’s just another elaborate goddamn “bothsides”
What a world…
Margin of error above 3%. Non-story.
Not to mention, NBC ran the numbers with different turnout cases. In one of those cases, a very realistic but small few percentage point changes in turnout assumptions of different demographics could make the poll swing to 49% Harris to 46% Trump
How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results
Further, two other national polls released today showed the race as Harris+3. A lot of the dooming tends to be based on single polls. Yes the polls suggest race is close, but only paying attention to anything bad/mediocre isn’t helpful either
Don’t doom, take action instead
Make sure to register to vote. Deadlines are fast approaching in many states
Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online
Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races
People who downvote are encouraged to take Statistics 101.
<3
Honestly, you can’t trust the tv news polls. They want people to watch and Trump gets them numbers.
quick we must go even further right! - dnc strategists
Democrats keep conceding right -leaning policies as if Republicans actually just want those policies
Republicans are reactionary - they don’t just want tougher immigration policies. they want to hurt immigrants. If democrats push right, Republicans will just go further.
There is no moderate right-wing position the can win over moderate Republicans that they can’t just beat by going further right.
I’ve seen some of Blue MAGA begging for George W Bush to endorse Harris. wtf.
I remember how mad they got when Romney didn’t endorse like they felt entitled to.
So you are one of those.
WTF is “Blue MAGA”?
I don’t see people on the left holding onto what was and getting stuck on reverting to times of old. Preventing the forward march of changing times.
Blue Maga: we need to talk about the cult-like turn of the Democratic party https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/15/democrats-joe-biden-maga
That’s a laughable bad take.
The left, known for picking apart their candidates and platforms and fucking themselves by letting perfect the enemy of good repeatedly being called out as “cult-like”.
I’m voting for Harris. But lemme tell you, I’ve got issues with her. Especially her history as “pro cop”.
The thing is, many people on the left vote for “harm reduction”. We know there’s better candidates out there, but we’re stuck with what we’ve got in the FPTP voting we have.
Objectively, voting for Harris will cause the least harm in this election.
Especially if our alternative is a ratfucking tyrant that wants to be a “dictator”, wants to “ban protests”, revoke the broadcast licenses of media outlets critical of him & his party, would authorize Israel to wipe out Gaza with our direct support of our troops, would consolidate wealth to the top, and is openly working with the deranged likes of a man that dreams of making his workers indentured servants and would push the USA to reflect apartheid South Africa to relive the glory his father did.
Blue MAGA? Wtf are you talking about?
Just vibes will win the presidency…
Just like always.
Not even giving them the click. I know who I’m voting for.
I don’t like Harris very much. But the fact that half the country is willing to choose a deranged con artist over her is just beyond any rational thought.
Half the voting population, more specifically
Or I guess in this case, half of those polled
To be fair, it’s not like everyone that doesn’t vote hates him. Some do I’m sure, but there’s also going to be people that think favorably of him but don’t bother voting, just as there are and have been for his opponents
That’s what happen when you fuck your education system for money
Rationality has nothing to do with it.
It’s all fear based. They think the migrants coming across the border are coming to take their job, rape them, break into their home, shop at the same Walmart as them, etc.
I want to commend you for how well you did that. Absolutely beautiful ending with “shop at the same Walmart as them”
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Yeah. Well played there. 👍
I’m for all of that happening… to Republicans. ;)
I’ve lately been watching some radio shows on the BBC, and it’s wild to see the same things happening over there. I don’t know if it’s just how modern society has become or if it spread from us or them, but take away the British accents and the names and policies, and it’s the same insanity. What the hell is wrong with people?
Russia created a network of wannabe autocrats, and they are pushing each other all across the globe.
That’s it, that’s most of all of it.
No it isn’t. It’s hardly any of it. We exist in the same places they are targeting and it didn’t turn us into complete goddamn idiots, so what’s their excuse?
They have always been racist, but the populists taking advantage of them use Russian tactics and are backed by Russia.
Stuff like Trump and Brexit is not normal, and it’s not just happening spontaneously because all the racists decided to be more overt at the same time around the world.
Everything is fear based and not rationale.
Trump voters fear immigrants; Fear their guns, religion and identity are somehow being taken away. They fear and refuse to understand the world is constantly changing and that we need to adapt along with it.
Harris voters (rightly) fear trump and all the bigotry, racism, and misogyny he has enabled and emboldened.
Most of the American people don’t have something to vote for, only something to vote against. The ruling class is further detached for the working class by stoking culture wars gaslighting on the socioeconomic disparage
They want Trump in because he represents an amoral outsider. Someone who is disenfranchised by the moralisms of the establishment left.
This is how they see themselves.
They like him because he’s a shithead who doesn’t care to preserve this system. They want change even if it’s bad.
In this way pointing out that he’s a shithead and a risk to democracy - helps him.
Unfortunately it’s the Harris campaign’s only option, as the alternative is to say: He’s actually a highly connected establishment figure who will pull the same establishment shit we do. This would have obviously blow back for an establishment figure.
They want Trump BECAUSE he’s a train wreck.
The media wants a race. That’s the only way they get viewers.
Or… it really is THAT close of a race. When we shrug it off as “the media just wants a race” we get complacent.
www.vote.gov make sure you’re registered and double check even if you think you already are. Early voting is happening in some states. Get active
Always vote like your vote will make a difference. It might, especially local races. If we accidentally turn the election into a sweep by everyone voting, oh well.
Who’s shrugging off anything? Did I say that? Nope. I’m just saying that we can have a close race and it still be true that Harris holds a 3-point lead nationally and small leads in the swing states. My point is that the media ALWAYS try making it even closer than what it is. Do you disagree with that?
It could also be true that Trump holds a 3 point lead. It could go both ways.
It can be both things.
There are no definitive data points that should lead anyone to believe that either candidate has a significant advantage.
I’m not sure anyone who is well versed in election projections or polling would say anything other than it’s a toss up. As a heavy consumer of said data and reporting, I haven’t seen anything to the contrary.
You’re not wrong about media incentives, but they’re also not wrong that this is a very close race.
Thank you! That was point. It’s close. Harris holds a steady, yet small lead. The media will always make it seem closer than what it is though for ratings.
Landslide stomps get views too. They made a game of Reagan’s run in literally 1984 trying to predict if he could win all 50 states or not. (He fell one short).
It boggles the mind that this sack of shit is even in the running.
He has the charisma of a wet sponge (and the appearance of someone you’d think twice before buying a used car from), he can hardly string together a sentence (let alone hold a speech), hi lies, he commits fraud, he’s a convicted felon…
That’s hardly brushing the surface, yet people go “fuck yeah, this guy should run the country”.
Jeebuz fuckin christ… what’s happening?
Unless you got home schooled by Heinrich Himmler, there’s no excuse. You can’t possibly offer your political support to such a scumbag.
He tells people it’s ok to be angry. That’s all they want to hear.
Guess there was not enough money in the public school system after all.
When a society puts money above all else Donald Trump is what happens. He was a celebrity failed businessman long before he became president, he knows what gets Americans excited.
I don’t watch a lot of TV, so I don’t see ads much, but just saw an ad from the turnip who was railing against they/them pronouns…the level of hate from the turnips is insane. It’s like if Hitler was running and railing against jews. How is this shit allowed on tv…next he’s gonna be saying minorities should be hung.
Hanged. Execution by hanging is hanged not hung.
Maybe he thinks Trump wants immigrants to be hung as in have huge dicks to be eligible for an entry visa?
They can be hung by their own huge dicks as long as it’s not to death.
Idiocracy. We live in Idiocracy… 500 years before expected.
It’s not fair. I at least wanna go get a burger at Buttfuckers.
President Camacho legitimately wanted to find solutions to the problems his constituents faced, AND he had the wisdom and self-awareness to know he needed someone smarter than himself in order to achieve that. He’s willing to try things and change his mind when he is presented with new information. Furthermore, when he is successful, he shares the credit equitably with the other people involved.
We’re doing much worse than Idiocracy.
Idiocracy was a movie working from the naive assumption that people are greedy and shortsighted, and that these attributes lead to social (and eventually genetic) decay.
Americans have to deal with a much harder truth. That being smart doesn’t make you virtuous and lust for power more than simple hedonistic greed is what cultivates the worst social policies. Our story is a story of pure hubris. Its a story of reasonably intelligent and educated people gaming a system that causes pain in order to pay them a profit.
We’re doing much worse than Idiocracy.
America’s sins aren’t sloth or lust or gluttony nearly so much as they are wrath and pride.
I dont remember much about genetic decay.
There was definitely educational decay.
I dont remember much about genetic decay.
Its the opening scene.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP2tUW0HDHA
Evolution does not necessarily reward intelligence. With no natural predators to thin the herd, it began to simply reward those who reproduced the most, and left the intelligent to become an endangered species.
He may have been a tad impatient, but he eventually saw the green
30 or 40 years ago he would’ve been laughed out of politics the moment he came down his gold escalator.
I was at a pumpkin patch 25 minutes out of Chicago on Saturday and there was a man proudly wearing a shirt with Trump on it and the shirt said, “I’m voting for the convicted felon”. His voter base does not fucking care, at all.
They are under the assumption that both sides are equally bad and want to see it all burn down I think. They don’t think much further however.
I know a lot of Trump supporters. Without fail their support is based on hate. LGBTQ, immigrants, the belief that Democrats are child molesters, etc. I’ve heard it all. They don’t know what his policies are, nor do they care.
I was talking with my mom the other day and apparently their neighbors, who up until now had never shown any political affiliation at all, put up a Trump flag. They’ve been neighbors for like 20 years haha, my mom was shocked.
That’s hardly brushing the surface, yet people go “fuck yeah, this guy should run the country”.
Only the stupid people say that. The smart people say that the woman running against him is just as bad as him despite being measurably better in literally every conceivable metric.
Running the country again…
I’m willing to believe someone could have voted for Trump the first time in good faith. Voting for him again after seeing the shitshow of his first term, however…
Fucking HOW?
A) Has Biden markedly improved your day to day life or indicated a massive amount of progressive changes to the system?
B) Is the system likely to radically change away from corporate control/lobbying and towards a strong government agenda any time soon?
If you answered no to both these questions, you should understand why people want Trump in. He represents radical change, a concentration of government power in the executive branch. Sweeping changes under the guise of helping “real Americans” and harming the usual scapegoats (immigrants, gangs, socialists).
That’s the thing; Harris has played towards a center that is greatly weakened/absent in times of political division (she’s not selling herself as being a progressive change, like for instance Obama did with his HOPE campaign).
Where as Trump has played to the far-right, which is actually present and there in divided times like this.
You have to play to the side that’s there if you want enthusiasm.
Harris didn’t play towards progressives who want change (Bernie Sanders crowd). So they’re only voting to prevent Trump’s fascism, not because they actively expect sweeping progress from Harris (who champions establishment causes like border control and Israel).
She hasn’t escaped Biden and the status-quo corporate grind. Trump has escaped his conscience about appearing centrist. Division serves him, counts against her, because she’s playing to the absent center, where he’s not.
He represents radical change, a concentration of government power in the executive branch. Sweeping changes under the guise of helping “real Americans” and harming the usual scapegoats (immigrants, gangs, socialists).
While we know Trump is a conman, I would understand this as a rationale for those that didn’t believe he was a conman, except we’ve already HAD 4 years of a Trump Presidency. If he was promising these great reforms for the little guy, why didn’t he do any of them in the 4 years he was in office? Why do people think this time will be different?
It’s not rational, it’s based on feelings.
You’re not dealing with rational fact based thinkers. You’re dealing with people who see him as a proven common type person who shoots from the hip.
… and they don’t mean he’s common in that he’s poor. They see him as honest/common/like them BECAUSE he shoots off hit takes and says things other politicians wouldn’t.
That’s why they love it qhen he says hlw crappy Detroit is IN Detroit. He’s done similar in several cities now, and they see this as proof he’s like them. They’re down, he’s down. They want to MAGA, he wants to MAGA.
The thing that stopped him last time was all these deep state lawsuits.
Again, these are not rational people.
All that said, maybe it is a rational response to that Black Mirror episode about social credits.
These are all good points, but it’s really not that complicated. Imagine if there were only two NFL football teams. The right are simply die-hard fans of their team and nothing will sway them to change their allegiance to the other side. Nothing.
Policy doesn’t mean shit to them.
Integrity doesn’t mean shit to them.
The Constitution doesn’t mean shit to them.
Upholding a democracy doesn’t mean shit to them.
As long as “their team” wins, that’s all that matters. That’s are not smart people we’re dealing with here.
If that is the case, it’s still a better ratio in the US than in Israel. Israel has a solid majority of far right supporters, the left have no possibility of winning over there.
Hope my society goes the European route of having multi party democracies such as the Open List Proportional representation systems in like, Germany, or wven further afield like in Japan.
Either way we get Reagan’s 12th term
13th
You got downvotes, but I get your point. We still have scars from Reaganomics and other crimes.
Another 4 years of liberals crying about trump…
Kill yourself.
With what?
A dead heat in polling is not an even race. We know Democrats need a significant lead to be break even on election day.
The Electoral College gives Republicans a significant advantage.
Its not just the EC. That exists, yes, but its not the biggest stumbling block for team D’, this is:
Trump historically outperforms his polling. In 2020, even though he lost, he over performed his polling by 8 points. As in, he lost 2020, but he should have lost way worse based on what polling indicates. This is most-likely an issue with “likely voter” demographics models, in that Trump voters are regularly under surveyed as the don’t look like likely voters on paper.
Don’t you think the pollsters have compensated for that by now? This has been known for years and years.
Yeah thats a great question. Short answer, no, I don’t. Long answer, is that its complicated and too hard to know. Safe answer is, just assume the above as the best guess for what biases will look like on election day.
The problem with being able to compensate for what the above data show is that you have to have extremely good demographic models, specifically for demographics you didn’t capture in your original sample. I think part of the reason why stochastic modeling misses these things is that its not really a forwards-in-time facing type of analysis. You can’t compensate for a future state if that state is unknown, you can only go backwards to account for your prior (but even that is still facing backwards).
However, I don’t agree that stochastic models are where we should stop with trying to understand these kinds of things. There are plenty of phenomena where we engage with a range of classes of models to try to get an idea of where things should be. Some examples of these are things like process based models, which are a kind of simulation to estimate based on some parameterization, how things came to be. You’ll often do a kind of bayesian filtering on these kinds of models to get down to results that match your data, then use the priors to hopefully understand something about the system. So in the context of electoral politics, it would be trying to understand why someone gets off the couch to vote, or join a movement, or whatever.
So I think that the data in these stochastic samples are good, but the problem is that voting really isn’t a random effect. I think the results are likely good, but they are only going to be as good as the last time the voter demographics were sampled (if they were even updated for that), and then as relevant as those demographics are to the actually electorate who shows up when November 5th rolls around.
A great example of this phenomena in play was the Bernie/ Hillary primary race in 2016. Hillary had the support of basically every mainstream media outlet on the left, all of the DNC, all of Washington. Yet, she was on-track to lose until the DNC stepped in and put their thumbs on the scales. Why? How was that possible? How was Bernie out-performing all of his polls?
Bernie was outperforming his polls because he wasn’t drawing on the same distribution of voters for whom polls are focused. He was turning disengaged, non-voters, into engaged participants in a process. And you can’t measure that with your last demographic sample, because according to your best most recent measurement: those people don’t vote.
Trump does something very similar. He is gathering disenfranchised, disengaged, non-voters and turning them into voters. And you’ll never capture that with a polling model based on last elections voter demographics, when the strategy is to fundamentally shift the demographics.
If pollsters were to massively weight their numbers as I’m describing, Democrats would be getting thunked right now. Its why having a >5% polling advantage going into election day is so important for Democrats.
Thank you for a good write-up. Much appreciated.
I still think Trump is such a well-known commodity now and all of this is nothing new. We’ve been talking about his “hidden voters” so much for so long that I actually think polls may be overcompensating a bit for that. Or at least they could be pretty well calibrated for it at this point. Guess we’ll see in less than a month.
I still think Trump is such a well-known commodity now and all of this is nothing new. We’ve been talking about his “hidden voters” so much for so long that I actually think polls may be overcompensating a bit for that.
I would be ecstatic for that to be the case. Unfortunately, both the 2016, and 2020 polling disagree. But right now, the data we have at our disposal do not support that case.
I’m curious what you think pollsters are doing when you say:
Or at least they could be pretty well calibrated for it at this point.
Like, in stochastic modeling, you have to do things like having a truly random sample to develop your statistics on. Pollsters hands are kind-of tied in this regards and the data is mostly available for download. I’m curious if you think there is some kind of demographic weighting that you think pollsters are doing on the back end?
Yes, I definitely think pollsters are compensating for Trump’s hidden voters by now. Like you say, they’ve had both 2016 and 2020 to get it worked into the polling. It’s rare to get three tries to work it out. I’d be very surprised if they undercount it again.
