I have no idea about William Hill. But the odds they describe sound about right to me, and the Nate Silver thing and the summary of Trump’s speech sound informative
inb4 BIDEN COPIUM HAHAHA etc and etc
CNN, NBC, and NPR are working overtime to glorify second coming of Lord Agolf Shitler
Polls mean nothing, vote as if the end of the human race was at hand.
I’ve been tracking the odds on Betfair. They have moved from 1.54 to 1.58 (decimal odds, 1 is dead cert, 2 is 50/50), so very marginally less likely Trump win. ‘Slumped’ they have not.
Harris is at 5.4 and Biden way behind at 15.5.
Where are you looking and when did it say it was updated?
Here’s what I see on Betfair; updated as of July 13th it says:
- Donald Trump = 1.654/6 = 1.28 decimal = 78% win
- Joe Biden = 10.09/1 = 11.1 decimal = 9% win
- Kamala Harris = 5.69/2 = 3.85 decimal = 26% win
(Note they sum to more than 100%, because of the “house cut” nonreciprocal nature of the odds)
If there are more recently updated numbers that now say 1.58 decimal, that would mean the odds of Trump winning have dropped from 78% to 63%. I’d say that’s a fuckin slump.
(Also note - that doesn’t mean they think Biden has a 10% chance of winning if he stays in. It means the chance he will stay on as the nominee times the chance he will win in the election is 10% – although looking at their odds for who the D nominee will be, it looks like they also think he has a lower chance of winning than Kamala, if he is the nominee.)
Can you explain these decimal odds a bit more? I’m confused.
This site has an explanation, examples, and a converter.
I do think it’s funny that Biden’s team has figured out that the winningest move is to just talk about Republican policies, 2025, etc. My entire life I’ve pretty much only wanted to talk policy and rolled my eyes at every single other thing that people said mattered, and it’s like I’m finally getting just a little vindication.
The only sad thing is that it seems like they’re (still?) only talking about the other side’s policy, rather than backing their own policy based on its strength.
Just “I’m not the other side” (but at least with policy rather than personality)
Well that’s a click bait title. It’s based on betting markets that the head line completely misinterprets. The article itself admits Trump is still the favorite by far.
I’m sure that pleases you to know.
Not really.
So I think we are in a post 2016 news cycle so even though an assassination attempt is kind of historic, it’s not that big of a deal in 2024 when I’m sure next week we will get another huge earth shattering news. Maybe this time Putin finally croaks.
I’m an insomniac and the news came through while most of my country would be asleep. There’s been news I’ve woken my sleeping partner up for, because it’s been historic or 'in the run '.
Jan 6 was one of those days.
This wasn’t. And yeah it had just happened and then the event was over so, nothing really ongoing. But I literally read what I needed to about it and moved on.
On reflection, America has used up all my sense of surprise, and I’m ashamed to say, compassion for them.
I watched Sandy Hook unfold and cried. I remember that day. But the many, many that came after? Just another headline.
I’m not hyper focused on the news; there’s plenty going on in my country of interest or more relevance to me.
But I think it’s odd that the attempted assassination of an American President in my lifetime… Just isn’t surprising or interesting to me. I just have a ‘well that tracks for that place’ attitude. Putin? Now that would be something.
But I think it’s odd that the attempted assassination of an American President in my lifetime… Just isn’t surprising or interesting to me.
Not here either.
I have heard one person who wasn’t some friend/family I was specifically talking to about it, even mention it. And she clearly didn’t give a shit. She referenced it for like 5 seconds talking about something else and then never returned to the topic.
It’s fucking wild. I think everyone has just tuned out of the crazy shit politics news machine… which of course brings its own brand of danger. ☹️
Literally nobody, except some pundits, has mentioned it at all. Biden said “feels bad man” and tried to call the family of the guy who died. That’s it.
I think this may be the better timeline because he gets like 1% of the sympathy of a normal president and all of the PTSD. If he died, he doesn’t get to lose the election.
Fucking vote.
The people that vote for trump don’t care.
Christ, they wear diapers and put fake ear bandages on. You think they give a damn about what’s actually right?
Trumpism is nothing less than a fascist cult.
Let’s all hope that donnie’s chances slump to zero.
So when he droned on about Hannibal lecter, was he trying to talked about Hannibal Barca?
(I don’t want to listen to the speech)
No. He literally thought that Hannibal Lecter, the fictional murderer and cannibal from the film “The Silence of the Lambs”, was both dead and also a great person. And no, the person who portrayed the character of Hannibal Lecter, Anthony Hopkins, isn’t dead either. Also, that was a speech from a few weeks ago I think, and not the RNC speech, which was also unhinged and devolved into a Trump rally attacking Biden and prominent leftists rather than the “call for unity from a changed man” we were promised by bad faith right wing media outlets.
Trump’s brain is just as much a pile of mush as Biden’s is at this point, but at least I know in the moments of lucidity that Biden has, he’s effective at the job and does the right thing. Can’t say the same for the 34 time convicted felon running for re-election after he failed to steal the last one.
IMO the senility of either candidate is beside the point because they both have teams that will keep things running when they can’t. Hell, those teams keep things running even when the president can because it’s not a job one person can do alone.
The difference is Trump’s team is openly planning fascism while Biden’s team has to at least pretend to be opposed to that or risk more people accepting that neither party wants to oppose the ruler class.
The only time a president being lucid matters is when the president disagrees with their team, that disagreement matters for the people, and the president is on the good side of the disagreement.
And in this case, I can’t see any disagreement a lucid Trump has with his team having a good option for the prime or any disagreement a lucid Biden has with his team having a worse outcome than Trump’s team gaining power.
The Hannibal Lecter thing was back in May, unless he did it again.
He did do it again. He actually never quit. It’s been part of his stump speech at several stops.
Trump Shouts Out ‘Late Great Hannibal Lecter’ in RNC Speech (Yes, Really)
Video Clip Very Short Excerpt, it’s in the clips of the full 90+ minute speech too.
I can’t keep up. Is Trump losing or is Biden losing? It changes every 5 minutes.
They’re lying cause Trumps winning to the point high level democratic members are openly admitting Bidens gonna lose. All this is pitiful window dressing.
America is losing
Am Canadian. Does that mean we are winning? Cause it seems like we are losing, just more politely.
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Sorry to bring the mode down eh.
Honestly id take the Enclave from Fallout at this point. At least then we get eyebots, power armor, and vertibirds. Plus I want to release FEV Curling 13 into the water supply of Utah to see what happens.
Super Mormons.
More like Mormon Cadavers. The Enclave was gonna use FEV Curling 13 to commit omnicide against everyone not vaccinated against it, which happened to be a list consisting exclusively of the Enclave.
Right, I forgot the distinction. I’ve gotta play Tale of Two Wastelands again.
Biden was and will be another good president. Stop allowing perfection to be the enemy of good.
You got me there.
While it looks like half the country is split between this dipshits, in reality the majority of Americans agree on a shockingly high number of issues.
One of those issues is that both options are fucking awful, so who’s “losing” harder is matter of witchcraft at the moment as things violently spiral into the ridiculous
in reality the majority of Americans agree on a shockingly high number of issues.
And it’s exactly why I say this every single day in some comment or another: I FUCKING HATE PROPAGANDISTS!!!
What you said is absolutely true and without the likes of Fucker Carlson, Sean Hamface, and Laura Inbread, we’d actually have some fucking semblance of unity and solidarity… But no, we get divide and conquer… Hate hate hate hate. Fox primetime is literally the “two minutes hate” from 1984 with an ever changing Goldstein.
Biden is not really that awful as an option, as far as it goes. If he is in decline, he steps down after the win. It’s not like Biden as a choice is comparable to donnie as a choice. They are night and day.
Now, trying to sell Biden as a product to “independents” (aka, the low info) because we sell politicians like the way we sell consumer goods like fizzy sugar water - that’s not so great, since the bothsiderists keep acting like they are equally bad options.
Same, it’s like bad actors are muddying the waters on purpose, ignore it all. Vote
Losing implies that something happened. Like in a race a contestant is visibly ahead, or in gambling you have more chips than someone else or your money is all gone.
Just vote, volunteer to help give rides to people that wouldn’t be able to vote without it. If everyone votes, there will be no chance for the racist rapist with 34 felonies that has said on record that he will be a dictator.
This is why we don’t trust polls.
The polls are literally telling you that it’s neck and neck right now. If this isn’t clear to you, the problem isn’t the polls.
I don’t cast my vote based on polls polls and no one should. They’re full of shit. Everyone needs to vote like they don’t exist.
They’re full of shit.
While I agree that people should vote like they don’t exist, the reality is that they do a good job of giving you an idea of where voters stand. They were historically accurate in 2022.
If you think “they’re full of shit” it’s almost certainly a problem of understanding rather than with the polls themselves. Considering you haven’t really made an argument as to why, I can’t know for sure.
This is the expected psychological effect these headlines and polls the media penetrate on us provoke. The insecurity of not knowing who is winning can inspire a lot of people to not vote at all. “why vote if we are winning easily anyway?”, “I feel saturated, stressed up, maybe I should ignore politics for a while, not vote or vote for whoever at this point”. Things like that.
Remember that the owners of medias are human beings with agendas too, republicans and democrats.
Best thing we can do is force ourselves to vote no matter what, investigate both candidates deeply, and that’s it. Of course republicans don’t do the second part though, that’s a fact.
Trump is losing and they want Biden to drop out.
The person losing more is the one that most recently opened their mouth and reminded voters who they are.
America is losing.
Trump is losing.
The answer is no one knows. If you care, vote and don’t be complacent. Even if the news decides they think they know, they still don’t know.
This is the answer.
They’re competing to be unelectable and both winning.
In a race to the bottom I never bet against trump. Literally if Biden stops talking today I bet he’d have a better chance of winning by the end of it.
No one has voted yet so no one is ahead or behind. It’s all speculation and a waste of time
It really isn’t a waste of time
It’s at least as much of a waste or time as this conversation lol
Trump is a sore loser. Does that help?
Isn’t 8/15 better odds than 2/5?
Paying out higher (better) odds means you think they’re less likely to win
Yeah, I messed up the notation in my original post. I have replaced it.
I added an edit which is critical of your new assertion
I think the chances of Harris vs Biden winning are incorporated into this percentage. But it doesn’t separate out the factors such as likelihood of being the nominee vs likelihood of winning the GE. So we can’t say anything definitive about that without more information on how it’s being calculated.
The article says P(Biden wins) < P(Harris wins). It isn’t saying anything directly about P(Biden nominated) or P(Biden wins | Biden nominated) but it does imply that P(Biden nominated) is low.
Look what was the big things coming out of the RNC.
- A bulldog
- The troll that protects the water hazards on Trump’s courses (Kimberly Guilfoyle).
- The shocked remains of Florida pedo (Matt Gaetz).
- Racist, washed up, whats to fuck his daughter (Hogan).
- The UFC (Dana White).
- Shit kid rock song
- The most gay entrance you could do outside of Vegas or Broadway (Trump).
No one cares except MAGA country. It is boring.
Don’t forget the crashing of Grindr in Milwaukee
That was probably the most exciting part of the week. Republicans being free to be themselves until the servers crashed.
It’d be funny if Grindr were to have some “leaks” and some of the hateful closet cases were outed.
Gay furry hackers. Please 🙏
The whole thing has a Saul Goodman commercial vibe.
As encouraging as this may sound, it doesn’t change anything. VOTE!
Yup the idiots will still vote for him no matter what happens. Aliens could pop out of his skull and claim they’ve been operating him all along to destroy the earth and they’d still vote for him.
He could perform an abortion on live TV and his ratings would skyrocket.
If voting were sufficient then we wouldn’t be in this mess.
So yes, do vote, but you have to do more than that, too.
If your vote didn’t matter, try wouldn’t be trying to make it harder (or blocking efforts to make it easier).
VOTE
Please do explain how the necessity of further action “makes it harder to vote”.
If people are so pathologically demand-avoidant that asking them to do more than just vote makes them stop voting then yelling at them to vote isn’t going to help either.
I think they are talking about Republican efforts to limit voting access, not that doing more than voting makes it harder.
I’ve come to really like the saying “voting is the least effective form of civic engagement”
This isn’t true ime
Which part?
The fact that most people aren’t pathologically demand avoidant?
The part where you imply that asking someone to vote and asking them to do much more are equivalent
Of course they aren’t, and I’ve got no idea how you managed to take that from my post. XD
I’ve basically given up worrying about federal politics; I STILL VOTE IN FEDERAL ELECTIONS, but it’s clear they’re too solidly captured by special interests to do much there. I’ve shifted my focus to local/municipal politics and found a lot more success there.
Correct opinion.
Not because he’s a fascist child dilldler, because of his last speech.
