Washington and Kiev are negotiating a bilateral security agreement that mirrors the 10-year commitments Ukraine has entered into with several European powers.
Chomsky had a phrase along the lines of: we will fight forever- to the last Ukrainian. Basically switching up the “fight them to the last man”
Realistically, we all know where this war is going to end. At some point in the next couple years it will end in a negotiated settlement where Russia annexes some territory and maybe Ukraine is forced unto neutrality.
The only other possible scenario is a hot war between NATO and Russia.
We know Ukraine doesn’t have the offensive capacity to recapture territory and everyday Russia takes some village or another. Moving like 10 miles a month but moving.
So assuming that’s true, for the sake of discussion, what are the possible benefits and the possible negatives from continuing to support Ukraine?
Pros:
Our MIC gets a nice shot in the arm and shareholders are happy. They get to funnel more taxpayer funds into their portfolios.
Russia has to spend a dramatically increased number of resources in order to capture the land. More Russians will die, more Russian tanks will be destroyed, etc.
Cons:
Ukraine will be destroyed. As of November of last year, costs for reconstruction was estimated at $350B. That has likely increasing dramatically. We can barely pass $60B worth of military aid that mostly benefits our defense contractors. You think we are going to front them $500B?
Tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of additional Ukrainians will die. They already lost over a quarter of their population. They won’t recover for a century.
Is it really worth it? Are we really that cynical? It’s not only conservatives that think this way.
Realistically, we all know where this war is going to end. At some point in the next couple years it will end in a negotiated settlement where Russia annexes some territory and maybe Ukraine is forced unto neutrality.
absolutely nothing about this is realistic. what a fantasy.
At some point in the next few years russians will get tired of their children and wealth being destroyed, and they’ll take care of putin. That’s how this ends.
You think the EU is going to let putin have ukraine? Nato? wake up
It’s quite simple really: As long a Ukrainians are willing to fight, we will support them. The argument that “this would already be over if we didn’t support them” reeks of someone yelling “stop resisting” while beating someone else.
You expect them to just roll over and take it? After we’ve seen what they do in occupied territory? Forget it. You’re literally recommending that an entire people just lay back and let their families be deported/killed.
That is what the West publically says, to the last man. Lindsey Graham said to the effect that giving them money is a great thing because they will fight to the last man. I don’t see how fighting to the last man is a rational choice, given they were much better options than choosing alignment with the EU and NATO. Then again, American foreign policy makes no sense, such as funding and supplying Israel. Israel and Gaza is not an American interest. Just like Ukraine, the US has no need to participate in aiding a country over a region like Gaza. These are purely liabilities for the US.
With that argument: Why is it rational for Russia to fight to the last man? They’re pushing half a million killed and wounded, and billions of dollars worth of equipment. They’re living in a war economy. For what? Why don’t they just stop?
Russia can stop at any time without conceding territory or seeing their people be mistreated or killed in occupied territory. Any argument that “this would all be over if Ukraine gave up” can just be flipped around.
The Israel one I at least understand. Israel is a long time ally and is a powerful player in the Middle East. Supporting Israel would be consistent with what we’ve been doing for nearly a century.
I don’t agree with it personally- I would have never killed the Iran Nuclear deal for example. But I can at least understand it.
What I don’t understand is the obsession with Ukraine. Ukraine has been under Russian control for centuries. Under Russian empire back during the Tsar times. Under USSR. And even after the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 the Ukrainian government was pro-Russian.
It wasn’t until 2014 where the Euromaidan protests led to violence which forced the pro-Russian government to flee the country and installed a pro-Western government. Immediately that government started cooperating with the CIA and other western institutions and a few days later, Russians tanks roll into Crimea and little green men pop up in Donbas.
What I don’t get is the fear of Russia taking Ukraine as some sort of domino effect for the rest of Europe. Russia has controlled that territory for literally hundreds of years. Why was it perfectly OK for the entirety of the Cold War up until 2014- and now it’s the end of the world?
Why does it matter to us what corrupt eastern European government rules over the Ukrainian people? The Ukrainian government isn’t some bastion of democracy. It looks better compared to Russia in some areas (not a high bar) but it is nowhere near a Western country like is presented on mainstream media.
They ban political parties (including one that had something like 15% of the vote), delayed an election, they lie all the time, they incorporated a literal neonazi white supremacist militia into their official national guard apparatus and used their popularity to drive up recruitment.
They bomb civilian areas just like Russia does, they cut off water to Crimea (their own supposed citizens- no wonder crimeans prefer living under Russia), the president was caught with secret offshore shell companies… I could go on and on
We sacrifice so much for the Ukrainian war effort (inflation & high interest rates are a direct consequence of Ukrainian war) while people in the US struggle to make rent and pay for food.
Meanwhile that support is looking increasingly like it only delays the inevitable. Russia will eventually win (because we don’t actually want to help enough for Ukraine to win, just lose slowly), so Ukraine gets the worst of both worlds. Their country is destroyed and their people die needlessly- and they lose the war anyway.
It’s honestly insane. Cynical sadists are in charge of the world. I think this is a strong indicator that we are headed towards another global war like the early 20th century. Almost everyone - including so called leftists- are becoming neoliberal jingoists.
Pathetic Russian troll, trying the ol’ concern troll tactic. “Oh, we all know Russia is going to win, why make the Ukrainians, who BTW are just as bad as Putin, suffer even more by delaying the inevitable?” No one on here buys that shit, go back to facebook and X where your propaganda will find more fertile ground.
You know who suffers in a war? The average person. Not Putin, not the corrupt oligarchs, not the defense contractor board of directors, not the congressmen, and not the journalists.
It’s the average American who finds it harder and harder to live, the Ukrainian who is now living through power outages, the Ukrainian man who gets kidnapped off the street, the young Russian men who get thrown into a meat grinder. The families who live without their husbands and sons. Who get their living rooms blown up as a necessary evil. It’s the billions of poor in the global south who live through the economic instability caused by global inflation. Remember that every 0.5% increase in unemployment, tens of thousands of people die. There are similar relationships with rising food prices.
And when real war kicks off (which is inevitable) this will seem like a cake walk.
Just because you cannot envision another perspective besides constant war and death that you’ve been impressively convinced is somehow morally superior- doesn’t mean other people can’t.
Let’s see now, who started that war? Oh right it was Putin. No one else in the entire world (except maybe a few of Putin’s cronies) wanted that war, least of all the average person–including average Russian, who is suffering far more than average Americans because of it, since Americans are basically not suffering at all because of it and many pay no attention to it at all.
You’re saying that since average people suffer from the wars started by dictators like Putin, that we should all just roll over and let them own the world. “Oh, just let Putin have Ukraine (and then inevitably) the other former SSRs, and if that goes well, maybe a little more here and a little more there, that way you won’t suffer so much, which is totally your own fault for resisting.” Fuck that shit, troll.
Europe and NATO will not let that happen because it’s simply too big a threat to Europe. Putin is ruining a whole generation of Russians’ lives and futures along with Ukraine’s, just to satisfy his impossible fever dream of building an empire, and it will only destroy Russia in the process. You should be trying to help us stop him now if you want to prevent more suffering for the rest of the world.
The money US sends to Ukraine is a drop in the bucket and has no effect on the life of the average American–there are far bigger factors that affect our economy and our lives than that pittance of the military budget, much of which we’d be spending anyway to replenish our inventory with up-to-date supplies. You know how our MIC works. It’s a machine far bigger than average Americans have influence over, so even if people buy your propaganda it means nothing to that machine. Our lives are affected much more by domestic policies. Your propaganda efforts fomenting social unrest have been much more successful in that area golf clap but it won’t help Russia survive what Putin is doing to it.
Just because Russia illegally invaded does not automatically make it a good idea for us to drag out the war. The US supporting Ukraine extends the life of the war. Our actions directly impact whether tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people die.
It’s a question of looking at the potential positives and the potential negatives. And the outcome of that analysis depends on what incentives you prioritize and which you don’t find important.
The total value of Ukrainian aid is a drop in the bucket compared to the overall economic effects of the war. Right at the onset of the war, our inflation jumped up to nearly 10% until the Federal Reserve stepped in and pumped up interest rates to try and bring it to heel.
This has consequences. They seem arbritarily and abstract because it’s just numbers but they have serious nationwide (and global) impacts on everyone- especially the poorest members of society. The difference between a working class individual being able to afford or not afford a mortgage. Paying 20% or 30% in credit card interest. Parents who have to decide whether food or rent is more important.
Take that and multiply by hundreds of millions. We are sacrificing our own people (including everyone else) for the benefit of our defense contractors.
NATO does not actually care about Russia controlling Ukraine. It’s not of strategic value. Russia has directly or indirectly controlled Ukraine for centuries. Nobody cared until 2014. Russia is infinitely more invested in Ukraine than the west. Which is why Russia is able to easily outproduce the EU and the US combined in artillery shells- even when Ukraine is desperately fighting a 1:10 difference in artillery fire.
I will tell you what is going to happen. Sometime in the next couple of years, the war will end in a negotiated settlement. Ukraine will sign a peace treaty and become a neutered failed state while Russia annexes roughly the areas they control right now.
Except instead of just letting it happen quickly, it will happen over half a decade resulting in magnitudes more damage and death.
You know why we will sacrifice Ukraine? Because of the reasons I outlined above. A) funnel taxpayer $$$ into Lockheed Martin and friends B) make Russia bleed for every inch of land they take
The powers that be could not care less about Ukrainian sovereignty of the lives of the tens of millions who will bear the consequences for the rest of their lives.
You have been duped into adopting a brutal and cynical amoral worldview and the worst part is- you believe it’s the morally superior option.
Putin will sacrifice everyone and everything in Russia to try and achieve his fever dream of taking back Ukraine and the other post-Soviet states before he dies, and it just ain’t gonna happen. There is not the slightest possibility of it. The best he can hope for is to keep some portion of the Ukrainian territory that he already had before he started his idiotic enterprise, and he will have ruined Russia for generations in the process.
Also, I would imagine that once Putin’s gone, whoever comes after him will cede the territory back to Ukraine because the West will demand that, if Russia wants to be allowed to rejoin the world economy. All that suffering was for nothing but Putin’s ego. That’s what dictators do, and why we have to stop them, not appease them.
Ending my responses to you now.
it doesn’t have to. main reason for this war being this long is reluctance of western partners to deliver equipment necessary to keep initiative in present state of war. As a result - Ukrainian army get decimated while russians are getting better and everything awful they do: war crimes, defences, offense etc. Time is running out to help Ukraine and calls to “bust give up now” are self-fulfilling prophecy. I’m a pacifist at heart but in this case there is no way of stopping russian expansion (present and future) than to supply Ukraine with all necessary to win. Otherwise 1-2yr after “negotiations” we’ll have v2.0 where russia chomps off next piece of Ukraine (or other bordering country) while the rest of the world will keep repeating “what’s the point? we gave in last time, might as well save ourselves the trouble and give up now”. Solution by escalation is still possible as russia still has upper limit they are bumping against, but they keep on raising it so soon enough nothing will help, and that’s what russians hope for.
The goal was always to help just enough to keep Ukraine alive as long as possible but not to actually let Ukraine win.
It’s because the purpose is to hurt Russia and help our MIC. Everything else is rhetoric and propaganda. Russia has controlled Ukraine for centuries. Nobody actually cares about Ukraine strategically except for Russia. They are willing to sacrifice infinitely more for Ukraine than the West.
The only way to really save Ukraine at this point is to send troops. And that isn’t happening unless we are on the brink of WW3. Which may very well happen, but I think probably not for at least another 5~10 years and Ukraine war will over by then.
there is some truth to what you say, at least “just enough to keep Ukraine alive as long as possible but not to actually let Ukraine win”.
However I would disagree with over-generalised statement “Nobody actually cares about Ukraine except for russia”. Poland, for example, very much does not want to have common border with russia, esp. after this war. While US has a luxury of being able to ignore what’s happening it is not the case for some (most?) EU countries. Which also explains why some contribute enormously when comparing their contributions to respective country’s GDP. Ukraine independence also can be used by US as leverage against russia in the future, so while not humanitarian in principle, US has huge interest in Ukraine status.
There is a chance for Ukrainian win on battlefield without foreign soldiers, but it means lots of equipment. That window is quickly closing and then, yes, the only way to move forward will be foreign intervention.
Virtually everyone else’s opinion is meaningless. Russia has controlled Ukraine for centuries. It doesn’t fundamentally change the strategic situation. Sure, Poland feels vulnerable. Moldova is terrified. The Baltics, the Scandanavians, etc.
But fundamentally the EU and the US position doesn’t change whether or not Russia controls Ukraine. They will do their best to make Russia bleed for the ground they take, but they are unwilling to do what it takes for Russia to lose.
Why? Because Russia has signaled it is important to them. They are putting their economy on a war footing. They outproduce US + EU in artillery. They were willing to totally reroute their gas exports. Willing to sacrifice a terrifyingly high number of soldiers and equipment.
The ideological and strategic incentives for Russia make this a priority for them.
So if you actually want to stop Russia, you are risking WW3. And for what? For some poor backwater corrupt eastern European Slavic country? It simply isn’t worth the costs.
The EU has more incentive, as you point out, because Russia is on their border. And if WW3 starts, it will come from something like France sending troops to Ukraine.
I still don’t know whether that’s Macron showing diplomatic bluster in an attempt to escalate the rhetoric OR an actual threat of military intervention.
I believe Ukraine passed the tipping point of being able to succesful defend this war on their own. Their reckless failed offensive
last year guaranteed they eventually lose this war. All the land theyve lost right now they have no ability to take back.
So their position can literally only get worse- lose more land- until they eventually settle.
You can send them all the equipment in the world. They played lassiez Faire with their mobilization and simply don’t have the manpower to use that equipment. They didn’t bother building defensive lines and now Russia has captured nearly 20 miles worth of territory in less than a month in the Adveevka direction.
Their position is becoming untenable long term and it’s becoming increasingly clear. So how much is everyone willing to sacrifice for Ukraine? Are we ready to send our boys to die? I’m personally not.
Chomsky had a phrase along the lines of: we will fight forever- to the last Ukrainian. Basically switching up the “fight them to the last man”
Realistically, we all know where this war is going to end. At some point in the next couple years it will end in a negotiated settlement where Russia annexes some territory and maybe Ukraine is forced unto neutrality.
The only other possible scenario is a hot war between NATO and Russia.
We know Ukraine doesn’t have the offensive capacity to recapture territory and everyday Russia takes some village or another. Moving like 10 miles a month but moving.
So assuming that’s true, for the sake of discussion, what are the possible benefits and the possible negatives from continuing to support Ukraine?
Pros:
Our MIC gets a nice shot in the arm and shareholders are happy. They get to funnel more taxpayer funds into their portfolios.
Russia has to spend a dramatically increased number of resources in order to capture the land. More Russians will die, more Russian tanks will be destroyed, etc.
Cons:
Ukraine will be destroyed. As of November of last year, costs for reconstruction was estimated at $350B. That has likely increasing dramatically. We can barely pass $60B worth of military aid that mostly benefits our defense contractors. You think we are going to front them $500B?
Tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of additional Ukrainians will die. They already lost over a quarter of their population. They won’t recover for a century.
Is it really worth it? Are we really that cynical? It’s not only conservatives that think this way.
absolutely nothing about this is realistic. what a fantasy.
At some point in the next few years russians will get tired of their children and wealth being destroyed, and they’ll take care of putin. That’s how this ends.
You think the EU is going to let putin have ukraine? Nato? wake up
It’s quite simple really: As long a Ukrainians are willing to fight, we will support them. The argument that “this would already be over if we didn’t support them” reeks of someone yelling “stop resisting” while beating someone else.
You expect them to just roll over and take it? After we’ve seen what they do in occupied territory? Forget it. You’re literally recommending that an entire people just lay back and let their families be deported/killed.
That is what the West publically says, to the last man. Lindsey Graham said to the effect that giving them money is a great thing because they will fight to the last man. I don’t see how fighting to the last man is a rational choice, given they were much better options than choosing alignment with the EU and NATO. Then again, American foreign policy makes no sense, such as funding and supplying Israel. Israel and Gaza is not an American interest. Just like Ukraine, the US has no need to participate in aiding a country over a region like Gaza. These are purely liabilities for the US.
With that argument: Why is it rational for Russia to fight to the last man? They’re pushing half a million killed and wounded, and billions of dollars worth of equipment. They’re living in a war economy. For what? Why don’t they just stop?
Russia can stop at any time without conceding territory or seeing their people be mistreated or killed in occupied territory. Any argument that “this would all be over if Ukraine gave up” can just be flipped around.
The Israel one I at least understand. Israel is a long time ally and is a powerful player in the Middle East. Supporting Israel would be consistent with what we’ve been doing for nearly a century.
I don’t agree with it personally- I would have never killed the Iran Nuclear deal for example. But I can at least understand it.
What I don’t understand is the obsession with Ukraine. Ukraine has been under Russian control for centuries. Under Russian empire back during the Tsar times. Under USSR. And even after the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 the Ukrainian government was pro-Russian.
It wasn’t until 2014 where the Euromaidan protests led to violence which forced the pro-Russian government to flee the country and installed a pro-Western government. Immediately that government started cooperating with the CIA and other western institutions and a few days later, Russians tanks roll into Crimea and little green men pop up in Donbas.
What I don’t get is the fear of Russia taking Ukraine as some sort of domino effect for the rest of Europe. Russia has controlled that territory for literally hundreds of years. Why was it perfectly OK for the entirety of the Cold War up until 2014- and now it’s the end of the world?
Why does it matter to us what corrupt eastern European government rules over the Ukrainian people? The Ukrainian government isn’t some bastion of democracy. It looks better compared to Russia in some areas (not a high bar) but it is nowhere near a Western country like is presented on mainstream media.
They ban political parties (including one that had something like 15% of the vote), delayed an election, they lie all the time, they incorporated a literal neonazi white supremacist militia into their official national guard apparatus and used their popularity to drive up recruitment.
They bomb civilian areas just like Russia does, they cut off water to Crimea (their own supposed citizens- no wonder crimeans prefer living under Russia), the president was caught with secret offshore shell companies… I could go on and on
We sacrifice so much for the Ukrainian war effort (inflation & high interest rates are a direct consequence of Ukrainian war) while people in the US struggle to make rent and pay for food.
Meanwhile that support is looking increasingly like it only delays the inevitable. Russia will eventually win (because we don’t actually want to help enough for Ukraine to win, just lose slowly), so Ukraine gets the worst of both worlds. Their country is destroyed and their people die needlessly- and they lose the war anyway.
It’s honestly insane. Cynical sadists are in charge of the world. I think this is a strong indicator that we are headed towards another global war like the early 20th century. Almost everyone - including so called leftists- are becoming neoliberal jingoists.
How much does Putin pay you?
Feel free to share an original thought if you think you have the capacity, I’m listening
Pathetic Russian troll, trying the ol’ concern troll tactic. “Oh, we all know Russia is going to win, why make the Ukrainians, who BTW are just as bad as Putin, suffer even more by delaying the inevitable?” No one on here buys that shit, go back to facebook and X where your propaganda will find more fertile ground.
Slava Ukraini
You know who suffers in a war? The average person. Not Putin, not the corrupt oligarchs, not the defense contractor board of directors, not the congressmen, and not the journalists.
It’s the average American who finds it harder and harder to live, the Ukrainian who is now living through power outages, the Ukrainian man who gets kidnapped off the street, the young Russian men who get thrown into a meat grinder. The families who live without their husbands and sons. Who get their living rooms blown up as a necessary evil. It’s the billions of poor in the global south who live through the economic instability caused by global inflation. Remember that every 0.5% increase in unemployment, tens of thousands of people die. There are similar relationships with rising food prices.
And when real war kicks off (which is inevitable) this will seem like a cake walk.
Just because you cannot envision another perspective besides constant war and death that you’ve been impressively convinced is somehow morally superior- doesn’t mean other people can’t.
Let’s see now, who started that war? Oh right it was Putin. No one else in the entire world (except maybe a few of Putin’s cronies) wanted that war, least of all the average person–including average Russian, who is suffering far more than average Americans because of it, since Americans are basically not suffering at all because of it and many pay no attention to it at all.
You’re saying that since average people suffer from the wars started by dictators like Putin, that we should all just roll over and let them own the world. “Oh, just let Putin have Ukraine (and then inevitably) the other former SSRs, and if that goes well, maybe a little more here and a little more there, that way you won’t suffer so much, which is totally your own fault for resisting.” Fuck that shit, troll.
Europe and NATO will not let that happen because it’s simply too big a threat to Europe. Putin is ruining a whole generation of Russians’ lives and futures along with Ukraine’s, just to satisfy his impossible fever dream of building an empire, and it will only destroy Russia in the process. You should be trying to help us stop him now if you want to prevent more suffering for the rest of the world.
The money US sends to Ukraine is a drop in the bucket and has no effect on the life of the average American–there are far bigger factors that affect our economy and our lives than that pittance of the military budget, much of which we’d be spending anyway to replenish our inventory with up-to-date supplies. You know how our MIC works. It’s a machine far bigger than average Americans have influence over, so even if people buy your propaganda it means nothing to that machine. Our lives are affected much more by domestic policies. Your propaganda efforts fomenting social unrest have been much more successful in that area golf clap but it won’t help Russia survive what Putin is doing to it.
Just because Russia illegally invaded does not automatically make it a good idea for us to drag out the war. The US supporting Ukraine extends the life of the war. Our actions directly impact whether tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people die.
It’s a question of looking at the potential positives and the potential negatives. And the outcome of that analysis depends on what incentives you prioritize and which you don’t find important.
The total value of Ukrainian aid is a drop in the bucket compared to the overall economic effects of the war. Right at the onset of the war, our inflation jumped up to nearly 10% until the Federal Reserve stepped in and pumped up interest rates to try and bring it to heel.
This has consequences. They seem arbritarily and abstract because it’s just numbers but they have serious nationwide (and global) impacts on everyone- especially the poorest members of society. The difference between a working class individual being able to afford or not afford a mortgage. Paying 20% or 30% in credit card interest. Parents who have to decide whether food or rent is more important.
Take that and multiply by hundreds of millions. We are sacrificing our own people (including everyone else) for the benefit of our defense contractors.
NATO does not actually care about Russia controlling Ukraine. It’s not of strategic value. Russia has directly or indirectly controlled Ukraine for centuries. Nobody cared until 2014. Russia is infinitely more invested in Ukraine than the west. Which is why Russia is able to easily outproduce the EU and the US combined in artillery shells- even when Ukraine is desperately fighting a 1:10 difference in artillery fire.
I will tell you what is going to happen. Sometime in the next couple of years, the war will end in a negotiated settlement. Ukraine will sign a peace treaty and become a neutered failed state while Russia annexes roughly the areas they control right now.
Except instead of just letting it happen quickly, it will happen over half a decade resulting in magnitudes more damage and death.
You know why we will sacrifice Ukraine? Because of the reasons I outlined above. A) funnel taxpayer $$$ into Lockheed Martin and friends B) make Russia bleed for every inch of land they take
The powers that be could not care less about Ukrainian sovereignty of the lives of the tens of millions who will bear the consequences for the rest of their lives.
You have been duped into adopting a brutal and cynical amoral worldview and the worst part is- you believe it’s the morally superior option.
Putin will sacrifice everyone and everything in Russia to try and achieve his fever dream of taking back Ukraine and the other post-Soviet states before he dies, and it just ain’t gonna happen. There is not the slightest possibility of it. The best he can hope for is to keep some portion of the Ukrainian territory that he already had before he started his idiotic enterprise, and he will have ruined Russia for generations in the process.
Also, I would imagine that once Putin’s gone, whoever comes after him will cede the territory back to Ukraine because the West will demand that, if Russia wants to be allowed to rejoin the world economy. All that suffering was for nothing but Putin’s ego. That’s what dictators do, and why we have to stop them, not appease them.
Ending my responses to you now.
it doesn’t have to. main reason for this war being this long is reluctance of western partners to deliver equipment necessary to keep initiative in present state of war. As a result - Ukrainian army get decimated while russians are getting better and everything awful they do: war crimes, defences, offense etc. Time is running out to help Ukraine and calls to “bust give up now” are self-fulfilling prophecy. I’m a pacifist at heart but in this case there is no way of stopping russian expansion (present and future) than to supply Ukraine with all necessary to win. Otherwise 1-2yr after “negotiations” we’ll have v2.0 where russia chomps off next piece of Ukraine (or other bordering country) while the rest of the world will keep repeating “what’s the point? we gave in last time, might as well save ourselves the trouble and give up now”. Solution by escalation is still possible as russia still has upper limit they are bumping against, but they keep on raising it so soon enough nothing will help, and that’s what russians hope for.
The goal was always to help just enough to keep Ukraine alive as long as possible but not to actually let Ukraine win.
It’s because the purpose is to hurt Russia and help our MIC. Everything else is rhetoric and propaganda. Russia has controlled Ukraine for centuries. Nobody actually cares about Ukraine strategically except for Russia. They are willing to sacrifice infinitely more for Ukraine than the West.
The only way to really save Ukraine at this point is to send troops. And that isn’t happening unless we are on the brink of WW3. Which may very well happen, but I think probably not for at least another 5~10 years and Ukraine war will over by then.
there is some truth to what you say, at least “just enough to keep Ukraine alive as long as possible but not to actually let Ukraine win”.
However I would disagree with over-generalised statement “Nobody actually cares about Ukraine except for russia”. Poland, for example, very much does not want to have common border with russia, esp. after this war. While US has a luxury of being able to ignore what’s happening it is not the case for some (most?) EU countries. Which also explains why some contribute enormously when comparing their contributions to respective country’s GDP. Ukraine independence also can be used by US as leverage against russia in the future, so while not humanitarian in principle, US has huge interest in Ukraine status.
There is a chance for Ukrainian win on battlefield without foreign soldiers, but it means lots of equipment. That window is quickly closing and then, yes, the only way to move forward will be foreign intervention.
The power brokers here are EU / US / Russia
Virtually everyone else’s opinion is meaningless. Russia has controlled Ukraine for centuries. It doesn’t fundamentally change the strategic situation. Sure, Poland feels vulnerable. Moldova is terrified. The Baltics, the Scandanavians, etc.
But fundamentally the EU and the US position doesn’t change whether or not Russia controls Ukraine. They will do their best to make Russia bleed for the ground they take, but they are unwilling to do what it takes for Russia to lose.
Why? Because Russia has signaled it is important to them. They are putting their economy on a war footing. They outproduce US + EU in artillery. They were willing to totally reroute their gas exports. Willing to sacrifice a terrifyingly high number of soldiers and equipment.
The ideological and strategic incentives for Russia make this a priority for them.
So if you actually want to stop Russia, you are risking WW3. And for what? For some poor backwater corrupt eastern European Slavic country? It simply isn’t worth the costs.
The EU has more incentive, as you point out, because Russia is on their border. And if WW3 starts, it will come from something like France sending troops to Ukraine.
I still don’t know whether that’s Macron showing diplomatic bluster in an attempt to escalate the rhetoric OR an actual threat of military intervention.
I believe Ukraine passed the tipping point of being able to succesful defend this war on their own. Their reckless failed offensive last year guaranteed they eventually lose this war. All the land theyve lost right now they have no ability to take back.
So their position can literally only get worse- lose more land- until they eventually settle.
You can send them all the equipment in the world. They played lassiez Faire with their mobilization and simply don’t have the manpower to use that equipment. They didn’t bother building defensive lines and now Russia has captured nearly 20 miles worth of territory in less than a month in the Adveevka direction.
Their position is becoming untenable long term and it’s becoming increasingly clear. So how much is everyone willing to sacrifice for Ukraine? Are we ready to send our boys to die? I’m personally not.