Really you don’t need to read more than one chart:
If you vote for anyone other than Harris, you’re voting for Trump:
I don’t live in a swing state, I get to vote for whoever I want. Lets not pretend like the election doesnt. Boil down to half a million voters in like 4 or 5 different states. This is as much a reality as anything you’ve said, probably more.
Outside of a swing state, you’re right… right up until the National Popular Vote movement is in effect in enough states to get 270 Electoral College votes:
https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/state-status
"&As of April 15, 2024, the National Popular Vote bill has been enacted into law in 18 jurisdictions possessing 209 electoral votes, including
6 small jurisdictions (District of Columbia, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, Vermont),
9 medium-sized states (Colorado, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington), and
3 big states (California, Illinois, New York).
The National Popular Vote bill will take effect when enacted into law by states possessing 270 electoral votes (a majority of the 538 electoral votes). The bill will take effect when enacted by states possessing an additional 61 electoral votes."
I dunno, I saw some stats the other day indicating that if all the non-voters in supposedly solid red states actually went and voted, then they might be able to swing the state.
Yeah and if all the people who dislike both parties voted for the same third party they’d win, but that’s not going to happen either.
Why should it? Why should anyone vote for a candidate with no political administration experience? Regardless of their stated positions, what evidence do voters have that any of the third party candidates have the skills necessary to execute the duties of the office effectively? Without progressives in Congress, how exactly is a progressive administration supposed to navigate gridlock better than the neo liberals?
We are a two party system.
Yup, at least outside Alaska we are…
Who would have thought ALASKA would have the most progressive statewide voting system?
Can we get that going elsewhere?
https://www.elections.alaska.gov/election-information/#RankedChoice
“In accordance with Alaska law, all general elections will be conducted by Ranked Choice Voting (RCV). RCV allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference. Only the top four candidates who received the greatest number of votes for any office in the primary will appear on the general election ballot. There will still be a space for write-in candidates except for Presidential races. For a candidate to win, they must receive a majority (50% + 1) of total votes cast. If no candidate receives a majority of 1st choice votes in the 1st round of counting, more rounds of counting continue until a candidate reaches a majority.”
It could well be a consequence of how recently it became a state. There’s a similar situation in the UK where elections for the entire country use FPTP but elections for the devolved parliaments (Northern Ireland in 1973, Scotland in 1999, and Wales also in 1999) use other better options . Maybe seeing FPTP in action for a long time just turns you against it.
We’re working on it here in Colorado, but the two entrenched parties are fighting us tooth and nail. and don’t forget, Alaska has a measure on the ballot to repeal that this election.
Were working on it in Oregon too. Our democrats are partially on board with it but all the conservative counties are fighting it for obvious reasons.
This is where primaries are vitally important. They provide accountability with low risk to the overall direction of governance.
If Americans want a third choice support ranked choice voting
yeah we need to make it less dangerous.
This is the way. It’s perfectly okay to want to support a third party, but it isn’t done by wasting your FPTP vote.
^ THIS ^ - As I said elsewhere… Jesus, if ALASKA can do it…
There are two states where ranked choice exists apparently. Are these the states that the third parties are spending money in? They’d be the most likely places for them to win and show they are viable in any way.
I don’t know the second state, Portland has it for the first time at the local level and that’s turning into a clown car, I cannot WAIT to see how it works out in practice!
So far:
118 candidates running for 14 offices:
https://www.opb.org/article/2024/09/06/118-candidates-portland-election/?outputType=amp
One losing union support over mass traffic violations:
Multiple being investigated by the Secretary of State for trading donations to meet matching funds thresholds:
Second state is Maine.
Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election was not due to any erosion in support for Donald Trump. Rather, not only did Trump’s raw vote total increase, but in the key states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Trump’s share of the vote actually increased.
Still mind-boggling and a source of great personal disgust while being a national disgrace. One can only hope that enough people have soured on him since then, after countless displays of racism, xenophobia, sexism, authoritarianism, bigotry, and incompetence. A twice impeached loser felon grifter that’s clearly a russian asset should not stand a chance, yet here we are. Makes me sad.
Between the people trying to give you healthcare and secure your job, and the people trying to let your miscarrying wife bleed out in the parking lot of a for-profit hospital, some morons prefer the latter. Why? “because he’s racist like me!” seems to be the deciding factor. Yes, that is why my parents are voting for him. and my mom is a poll-worker 🤦♂️
Not going to vote your way out of this one unfortunately
I wouldn’t take this graphic too seriously…
They must have let people from each state make their own graph.
One exception proves the rule. :) But Florida is gonna Florida. There’s no question who they’re voting for.
It everyone else we need to worry about.
Wait, aren’t ALL of those colors inadvertently transposed? The reds and blues are wrong.
One exception proves the rule. :)
No, it doesn’t. Also my point is not “how Florida voted”
It is that the blue part of the right graph is clearly bigger than half, yet the text description says 48%.
So the whole graph set is not really worth drawing any conclusion from, because you can’t trust the data.
0.5% rounded up to the nearest whole number
That’s how math works
That’s how math works
No, it is really not.
What is 0.5 rounded up to the nearest whole number then?
What does it have to do with 48% presented as more than 50?
Funny how third parties always rear their heads at election time but remain almost entirely quiet the rest of the term. Where does the money come from?
I know of a couple of Lemmy users who frequently hype third party candidates, and who will not like this analysis at all, lol.
As do I, I see the reports all the time. :)
We discount this analysis because it’s self serving. Third Way as other orgs that diminish 3rd party candidates do so in an attempt to protect their own positions of power. Voters continuing to elect neo fascists from the duopoly vote against their own interests to do the bidding of the neo fascists
And your hopeless manifestation approach to breaking the two-party duopoly isn’t entirely self-serving?
It won’t accomplish anything. You will never win any election against the two-party behemoths without Democratic reform.
But you folks don’t ever advocate for that, just unqualified spoiler candidates, and never in local elections where independents have more of a chance.
Even if your heart is in the right place, you’re a liability to progress because you care more about Democrats being imperfect than you do about Republicans being fascist.
You say spoiler as if we would ever vote for your candidates. Anyway. There could be no third party candidates on the ballot and we would not vote for your appointed candidates
I see both of them as being fascist, the Democrat ratchet effect enables right-wing fascism to take hold.
I don’t think anybody is hoping to convince you True Believers who have fully incorporated this into your personality. The spoiler effect is more about other people who maybe haven’t thought about it so much and don’t realize the mistake they are making.
Florida 2020 graph is not visually accurate.
Im glad you posted this, but no both-sides smoothbrain will be convinced by it, since they are either lost on the plot, a bad faith actor, or unable to engage in real world politics.
Still saving it, just to have one more post to bash them over the head with.
I have given up talking to these people. I really can’t with Rule 3 because I do not believe they deserve any form of civility, and since I can’t call them out directly, I’ll ignore them while destroying their points.
The targets of my takedowns of the ‘Imma Vote Jill Stein!111one!1one!!’'s articles are the undecided and wavering voters who REALLY aren’t sold on Harris/Walz, but really don’t like Donald Trump. That’s where the ‘a vote for anyone but Harris/Walz just makes it easier for Donald Trump to steal the election’ line comes in. The ‘lost the plot/bad faith actor/naive poster’ people can’t be convinced, but we don’t have to, fortunately.
It’s not about convincing a both-sidser.
It’s about convincing someone who reads an article posted by a both-sidser and goes “Hmmm… maybe they’re on to something…”
They aren’t, they really, really aren’t.
Another good one here:
"Don’t Fall for the Third-Party Trick
A progressive who stays home on Election Day — or backs Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, or No Labels — is voting for Donald Trump."
"Progressives should not make the same mistake that Ernst Thälmann made in 1932. The leader of the German Communist Party, Thälmann saw mainstream liberals as his enemies, and so the center and left never joined forces against the Nazis. Thälmann famously said that “some Nazi trees must not be allowed to overshadow a forest” of social democrats, whom he sneeringly called “social fascists.”
After Adolf Hitler gained power in 1933, Thälmann was arrested. He was shot on Hitler’s orders in Buchenwald concentration camp in 1944."
I thought Kennedy dropped out to support Trump? Maybe I’m wrong I’m not American, but thought I heard that.
But yeah I agree. It’s just splitting the vote, the same thing happens in the UK. For a long time until this most recent election we only had the Conservatives on the right, whereas on the left you had Labour, Lib Dem’s and Greens, yet the Conservatives kept getting back in because the left wing vote was split, they wouldn’t work together to step down in certain seats to let the party most likely to be beat the Conservatives stand.
Thank god, in a weird way, for Reform UK, massively splitting the right wing vote this time around. Allowing Labour to win. If Labour don’t change the voting system to proportional representation now that they’ve finally got the chance after a 15 year wait, then they are truly mugs. They won’t though I’m sure. They are hopefully supposed to be letting 16 year olds vote which should help.
But yeah, that Hitler story gave me the shivers lol. Apparently we aren’t allowed to call Trump a fascist because it pisses off Republican voters and caused that assassination attempt (even though I swear the guy was a republican voter??)
But like; he is literally a fascist. For me personally, if someone said, “we can stop Trump from ever being elected, but the price is you have to cancel the election and just say that George Bush won and let him have another term”. I’d take that deal. I genuinely think Trump is so dangerous, it shouldn’t be a republican vs democrats thing, it should be an Americans for Democracy thing.
Article is from before Kennedy dropped out, but he’s still on the ballot in key states so it still applies.
Oh really? I don’t really get how your system works I guess lol. Cos I thought if he drops out he’s out. So he’s still running against Trump in some states basically? I would have thought he’d be taking votes from the right rather than the left though. But I probably just don’t understand your system properly tbf.
He tried to remove himself from the ballot in multiple states and was told “LOL - yeah, no.”
There are deadlines due to having to print the ballots, once you’re past a certain point, there’s no going back.
https://thehill.com/homenews/4872514-states-where-robert-f-kennedy-jr-still-on-ballot/
He’s currently on the ballot in nearly half the country:
Alaska
California
Colorado
Delaware
Hawaii
Indiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Oregon
Tennessee
Utah
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Ahh ok haha well that’s good at least. I can’t see any left leaning would-be democrat voters voting for the guy who dumped the carcass of a bear in… I wanna say… Central Park?
I love that they’re like “paper doesn’t grow on trees dude, we ain’t wasting anymore”.
I don’t really understand why these independents bother. Do they really think they’re gonna turn 3% (being generous) into 51%?? I don’t think so. I wonder if there’s some ulterior motive in play, like to just get their name out there and then with that name recognition, get elected into a much lower down position at state level.
Jill Stein in particular who at her BEST got 1.07%.
Generally she’s 0.1% to 0.3%.
If you live in a swing state or any state that is up for grabs, then yeah don’t vote for third party. If your in a deep blue/red state, I’m talking > 15 percent swing, vote for whoever you want in the presidential, your votes just going to get collapsed into the state vote for the electoral college any way. Should still vote for the two parties or whoever’s competitive in state and local elections because your vote can have an effect.
If the electoral college says my vote effectively doesn’t matter in deciding the next president since I’m in California, then at least let me use my vote to send some sort of message.
You’re exactly right.
I do wonder why nearly everyone manages to forget that the electoral college exists.
Oh wow, thirdway.org says you can’t have an alternative to two candidates who don’t represent you and have to choose between the candidates offered to you no matter your politics!
You don’t say!
In case any reader of this post isn’t aware: thirdway.org is the website for people associated with the Third Way which is described as a triangulation between communism and capitalism but ends up still being capitalism somehow.
Triangulation was a middle ground between Democrat and Republican ideology developed by Bill Clinton, Third Way, and the DLC. And has helped shift the entire party to the right. It has nothing to do with communism.
Garbage like this article and Third Way is self serving
Third way politics were common in Europe and there they were explicitly anticommunist. I think they were even promoted by state department cutouts. I didn’t want to make it solely about the us third way even though that website is the us third way clintonite psychos.
Whomst are absolutely anticommunist as well.
I’m just astounded that a person would post an article from the third way to make the case against third parties.
Confirmation bias
I don’t get your meaning there.
Third way is essentially a rightwing capitalist think tank posing as progressive. They, along with Bill Clinton and his DLC started the party shift to the right to in order to appeal to big money that had normally been flowing to republicans. They are opposed to third parties because it would harm capital.
Their name Third Way doesnt imply an an alternative approach to government, but representative of triangulation, the centrist approach to government, a little leftish a little rightish
Yup.
Third Way - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)
Information for Third Way:
MBFC: Least Biased - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: Mostly Factual - United States of America
Wikipedia about this sourceSearch topics on Ground.News
https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-dangerous-illusion-of-a-presidential-third-party-in-2024
Quick some body run as a super conservative as a third party and take away some GOP votes please.
