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- politics@lemmy.world
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- politics@lemmy.world
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Isn’t it already too late? Each state has laws about when a candidate needs to be “entered” so they can get their ballot/mail in/military ballots ready in time. I believe the earliest ballots are going out in like 2 weeks.
This would just set us up for every red state to push lawsuits and would recreate the absolute insanity that was 2020 election, except now these red states have installed “yes men” that will certify/refuse to certify whatever they are told to.
No. The convention is the end of the road. Ohio is an exception and maybe Alabama but I don’t think they’d be able to get away with keep the dem off the ballot completely.
That’s all I’m saying. That’s all anyone is saying.
Take ego and hubris out of the equation. Who has the absolute best chance of beating the fascists?
That’s it. That’s the only question that really matters right now in the context of this upcoming election, if we want to stop Trump.
yeah except democrats were so sure it was shillary, and then REFUSED the far better candidate in Bernie Sanders. Even if they came out tomorrow with someone, told everybody it was a lock, and the entire DNC fell in behind them, I still wouldn’t trust them to get it right.
But would you vote for them? No names, just generic Democrat.
course I would. But I’m uniquely aware of how catastrophically dangerous a second drumpf term would be. The average american may believe that we could survive a second term, much like we did the first, but that ignores the very real plans being enacted by drumpfs handlers. The US pulling out of NATO, or stopping aid to the Ukraine (which would 100% happen under drumpf) would mean WWIII, which is precisely what these right wing think tanks want. They see the expansion of US power after WWII as something worth repeating, even if it means having to go through a third world war. The rich and powerful always think they’ll be insulated from the war, which is why they aren’t as scared for it. They look at it much like the stock market, they’re trying to destroy the corporation of America so that they can buy up for cheap what’s left over.
Well good news. You’re not the only one. Generic Democrat beats Trump by something like 8 points in polling versus Biden losing to Trump.
It’s not the best argument; Generic Democrat has no personal baggage. I’m in favor of finding a better nominee (maybe even partially due to your advocacy), but unfortunately we can’t run Generic Democrat.
Yeah but if we let perfect be the enemy of the good then we’re going to ride this thing into the dirt.
I still haven’t seen anyone put forth a candidate worth throwing away Bidens incumbentcy advantage, Harris isn’t a great option
George Clooney
Gretchen Whitmer.
You’ve identified the issue yes
Kamala Harris is the only option that polls better than Biden, and she’s not a great option, no. I wish there were one that seemed like “oh that is the answer yes.”
I think - this is a completely serious statement - that Jon Stewart would be a great option. But because our political system is broken, we can’t do that.
Jon Stewart would absolutely win if he went for it, but he doesn’t want to. It sucks.
You have to read the entire section of the poll, not just the “supports candidate” part. The don’t know/undecided part grows in lockstep with the loss of support. While Trump maintains right around 40%. Which is a common phenomenon when people don’t recognize the candidate’s name.
A four month campaign is more than long enough to fix the name recognition problem and court the independents. The really important thing is generic Democrat beats Trump every time. That highly suggests Biden is hurting the campaign, not helping it and any recognizable Democrat will win this thing.
Its really not, because you gotta figure for hiring campaign staff, all the politicing behind the scenes, it SHOULD be as simple as run someone now and work that out later. But the Dems in charge think they’ll sruvive a second Traitor Trump term just as strongly and incorrectly as moderate voters
- That’s 2 questions.
- The more important question is asking how you convince Biden to step down. He has the delegates, he is the nominee if he wants to be. You could have the best candidate ever (they don’t) and it wouldn’t matter if you can’t get Biden to step down.
The party committee can meet and change the rules. Ironically it was SCOTUS that made this possible.
Even if you could change the rules, the delegates were decided by the Biden campaign. Would be hard to convince more than half of them to change their vote without Biden himself asking them to.
You’re forgetting all the super delegates. Also, those delegates were pledged months ago. Freed to vote in a brokered convention you might see some change.
Super Delegates don’t get to vote in the first ballot anymore, they changed the rules because the Bernie Bros were mad Hillary got a lot of Super Delegates. They didn’t want the Super Delegates to be able to do…exactly what you’re proposing.
Actually…I guess if we’re talking rule changes I guess you COULD change it so Super Delegates voted on the first ballot again, and hope enough Super Delegates were on board, but what an insane crisis of legitimacy that would cause. Like I guess you could change the rules so Nancy Pelosi picks the next Democratic nominee but that’s not a good way to make the voters feel heard.
Just play his own appearances back to him until he’s shouting at himself on screen like the rest of us
Cool, now WSJ is publishing a pro-Biden op-ed, comparing him to…The Blessed Saint Ronnie Raygun (PBUH).
JFC, they really want to have donnie run against Biden…
I’m absolutely sick of mainstream media trying to hose the democratic candidate by suggesting the guaranteed-suicidal act of switching out the incumbent. They know it’s failed every time. They still bring that up as news.
Find something else controversial to pin your ad revenue onto.
I’m sure that the mainstream coverage has been terrible—I avoid it these days for precisely that reason—but I don’t think switching candidates is guaranteed electoral suicide. Plenty of smart and reasonable people are looking at Biden’s performance—and his polling—and thinking we’d be better off with another nominee. Biden himself—setting aside the glaring problem of his advanced age and obviously reduced mental faculties—doesn’t seem to grasp the dire consequences of a potential loss, based on his post-debate statements.
At this point, I (and lots of other people who are neither stupid nor crypto-fascists) think we’d be better off with another candidate. 4 months is tons of time in today’s media environment.
Every other time was different. Trumps the guaranteed winner unless something changes.
- They are polling dead even; even if the polls are garbage that’s some sort of indication that “guaranteed winner” is false no matter how hard people keep repeating it
- That said, I get what you’re getting at. It’s really too bad there’s that big stasis rift in reality that means nothing can possibly change except replacing Biden with some other candidate, and that that action and that action alone is guaranteed to produce a good result, no matter how we do it.
Fucking rift
The only suicide pact is riding a senile candidate into the sunset while there’s still a chance to get off the ride.
Are we talking about Trump now? Man I wish I could keep track of senile old bastards. Because my senile old bastards are yelling incoherent crap and not actually in the conversation.
This fucking narrative of bringing up trump every time someone questions Biden as a candidate is so fucking obnoxious.
We all know trump is senile and fucking insane. His voters are insane. We’re talking about wether or not Biden is the best candidate to defeat him. Not everyone agrees with the narrative that swapping candidates right now is a bad idea.
You’re obnoxious with not accepting that both things can exist simultaneously.
As a matter of fact, we are talking about Trump. Any halfway decent 45-57 year old candidate will easily show Trump’s advanced age and cognitive decline. But we don’t get to run that race, because our candidate sounds like Grandpa did, the year before we put him in a nursing home.
Unfortunately no. I wish. But all the wishing in the world doesn’t change the position.
So what’s the play, if Republicans aren’t sane enough to remove their geriatric, why should we guarantee his victory by forcing out ours without his consent.
The Republican geriatric is leading the Democrat in the polls. Why would they show him the door? If Democrats continue this Biden route Trump will just win.
Oh, I just thought we’d treat them the same. Ya know, instead of this classic Democrat ploy of attempting to ensure a defeat.
Why is it always Democrats that have to hold their politicians to a higher bar than Republicans. How about we have some solidarity for the best chance we have at not living in a fascist shithole for once?
Demcrats don’t have morals or standards they’re running a guy complicit in Genocide. What do you even mean dude??
Well, I don’t know that it’s even possible to force Biden out without his consent. Certainly, it would be prohibitively difficult and contentious. Still, “If the GOP isn’t doing it, why should we?” is a terrible argument, by any metric. The line of reasoning that says Biden should step aside, and support another nominee, looks like this:
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It looks increasingly like he’s going to lose.
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If he loses, the country will—based on available evidence—likely descend into a pure kleptocracy, with fascistic and theocratic tendencies.
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Based on his own statements, he doesn’t fully grasp, or properly weigh, the consequences of losing this election. He’ll feel fine about losing, as long as he does his best.
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Given the above, maybe we’d be better off with someone else.
I’ll stipulate that I was on the #binarychoice train myself until recently. The sad fact is, he’s just that bad. And it’s not too late to change course.
It’s entirely likely Biden is trailing in polls because of the Democrats or others with ulterior motives reiterating that Biden should step aside that he is suffering in the polls.
Anyone who realizes the danger of Trump and project 2025 should be more than willing to say “I wish Biden would choose to step aside, but given the alternative I would vote for Biden’s bloated corpse if I had to over Trump.”
How about we listen to Bernie, or think a little harder, and show a little bit of solidarity for the only other current option. It’s not about defending Biden despite his failings, it’s about not holding him to standards his opponent doesn’t have to adhere to.
If we need a candidate that isn’t slowly losing their mental acuity to old age, Democrats AND Republicans need to come together and ask their respective geriatrics to resign together. Mutual adherence to the same standard, for the sake of the country.
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A great concern that not many talk about is, that he won’t be getting any better during the next 4 years. Even if he wasn’t old now, he’d become older while sitting in office, if he somehow managed to win.
somehow managed to win
What is your understanding of what the polls currently show?
I don’t really agree that polls mean much of anything, but I am curious what you think they show.
IPYWAIACCWTSYAOWTRIBCTTTSIIAWTBFB
Biden being on par with any unnamed Democrat and Harris +4 over Biden in head-to-head matchups with Trump.
Which poll was that?
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/politics/cnn-poll-post-debate/index.html
Biden: -6 Harris: -2
And four points is well above the margin of error.
The thing is the outrage machine hasn’t spun up yet on full force against Kamala. Once they do that she will poll worse.
Not sure how, she’s a total nothingburger. They’ll try and make do with insults, slander, and bigotry, but they’ve already locked in the segment of the population that’s receptive to that anyway.
I’m gonna stick with my polls, which start from a standpoint of “let’s probe for the reality” instead of asking leading questions. There’s a lot about this story that is just weird and suspect.
Registered voters who said that Democrats’ chances In 2024 are better if the nominee is:
A lot of these polls have been polling both Republican and Democratic candidates, and then reporting the numbers letting that little nugget slide under the radar. 100% of the Republicans are gonna say that Biden is trash whatever the question is, because the ones who are still voting Republican are programmed like the Manchurian candidate to stand up and say “BIDEN IS THE WRONG ONE”
Beyond Trump’s advantages on the economy and immigration, the former president is more trusted than Biden on foreign policy (46% to 36%) and handling the role of commander in chief (43% Trump to 35% Biden).
IDK. I won’t say there is nothing in this story that is valid or a thing to worry about. And, even if Democratic voters are sticking with Biden basically unchanged since the debate, that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be a good idea to switch him for someone who doesn’t have this real oldness problem. But I like the apples to apples comparison of just looking at Biden vs. other Democrats in non-debate-centered-construction polls, and Biden vs. Trump overall, and seeing if that number shifts.
We’re too trapped in a bubble if we think the white, non college-educated suburban housewives in Pennsylvania and Ohio that ultimately swung the 2020 election to Biden would vote for A) A woman B) A black woman C) A black woman who’s name sounds like “Obama”.
This is a bad place. And not most people, but most of the people who vote regularly, are just bad, broken, selfish, frightened people.
Then get Newsom to run. He checks all the traditional boxes.
Theyll vote down a Californian even faster, “MUH DRUG NEEDLES ON THE STREET, MILLION COST OF LIVING”, those will be the headlines for the four months before they turn into Magat pravda
Are we really worried about what Trump’s base thinks? I think if Newsom did even a modicum of campaigning he’d pull ahead. The “commie state” stuff only goes so far once he’s on the news talking about mainstream liberal stuff.
Aren’t the cons planning on doing everything they can to keep Biden from being replaced?
Don’t forget, he was elected by boomers in the first place. If they don’t have their candidate, they might not vote.
right wingers and the corporate media absolute hate that Biden is one of the most pro worker, pro union, and pro labor presidents in recent history and will do anything to try and get back trump
I think that’s a lot of the underlying reason
Like yes, we may get an open fascist who literally will destroy the country, and that won’t be good for our profits either. But fuck you, that’s why. You raise corporate tax, we’re gonna start some shit with you; that’s where it begins and ends.
And since no laws actually apply to the billionaire class, they have no existential fear of a Trump administration. Anti immigrant fervor? LGBTQ persecution? Oppression of women? Violent racism? “They won’t affect ME, or anybody I care about, but higher taxes and labor laws might mean I can only buy a thousand foot yacht every month, rather than the 1100 foot one I deserve.”
Yeah. And that is a foolish delusion, because it will, of course, affect them. They may get lucky and be able to turn the chaos into becoming absurdly wealthy (more so than they are) some way. But more likely is that they’ll have to scramble to stay safe and profitable, and they are already soft and slow to react after years and years of soft living in this safe society, so they might find it pretty hard. The fall and privatization of the U.S.S.R. might not be a bad example to look at for a similar example to how things might play out in a Trump unleashed chaos world.
They have the money to just fuck off somewhere better tho
Considering the competition… I’d be willing to vote for Biden’s dog.
Secret Service are cops, Commander bites them, therefore Commander says ACAB.
Commander 2024.
This shit is getting so fucking old.
I thought it was Major? Does he have 2 dogs that bite people?
And yes. It’s not totally logical, but I kind of liked that Biden’s dog was biting people. I tend to assume that a lot of people who work in the White House are bad people, and if someone’s dog is going in and biting them then I’m gonna assume without evidence that it had a good reason.
Yeah, it’s Major. From Biden worries the Secret Service may be loyal to Trump, according to a new book:
According to a new book offering an inside look at President Joe Biden’s White House, Biden actively distrusts the Secret Service to the point that he does not speak freely in front of his agents and he believed that the agency lied about an incident where Biden’s German shepherd Major bit an agent.
In The Fight of His Life, out January 17, author Chris Whipple details how Biden was showing a friend around the White House and pointed to the spot where Major allegedly bit a member of Biden’s security team. “Look, the Secret Service are never up here. It didn’t happen,” said Biden.
Cops framing people, cops killing dogs. I’m surprised they’re not part of the official screening process along with the “you must score under this IQ level to be good at this job” filter.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68366306
He literally has two dogs that love biting cops.
Or who cops love lying about being bit by.
This shit is just because they’re scared. They know Biden is going to curbstomp him come November. The racist rapist with 34 felonies is further up the ladder on mental decline anyways. I would vote for a steaming pile of Bidens dogs shit before I’d vote for anyone from the GOP.
That’s not what we’re seeing. Every time Biden tries to prove he can still think and shift the focus to Trump it fails and his polls get worse. He’s behind by 6 points in PA now. The single state we really need to win.
Polls mean less than nothing. At this point they’re just being manipulated to fit an agenda. Nobody voting red is going to vote blue, obviously even though he’s a racist rapist with 34 felonies and caused an insurrection. Nobody voting blue would vote for him no matter how bad Biden is. It’s turned into do you want a dictator or would you like to continue as a democracy. Come November when the left shows up to vote, (which they will, it’s a very important election) Biden will win and the loser will lose again and hopefully be forgotten in a jail cell somewhere where he belongs.
Vote, volunteer to give rides for people that need them to be able to cast their vote!
You think there’s some kind of conspiracy across multiple universities, research organizations and news organizations? The military can’t keep a private from telling their Chinese AI girlfriend about the secret mission they’re going on but you think independent professionals and professors are somehow all in on something?
The left has been very vocal about not liking Biden and the middle doesn’t think he can even do the job. The only people showing up to vote are Biden’s base and they aren’t enough.
You think there’s some kind of conspiracy across multiple universities, research organizations and news organizations?
No. In fact the universities and research organizations have generally been publishing polls showing basically no change in Biden’s numbers. You would know that, if you’d citationed.
In media, yes, although it’s more a case of groupthink, laziness, and vulnerability to manipulation than it is any grand conspiracy.
Check my response to your other post for links. It takes a little time to get them together because I’m not that organized of a person.
Come talk to me in November.
his polls get worse
Citation needed
Like a primary source, not just a news story claiming that this is happening or you doubling down about how it’s definitely happening
Okay. And here’s a PA specific trend line. And just so you don’t think I’m cherry picking, here’s NYT and The Hill.
Polling isn’t great for minutia but these trend lines are consistent with modern losses. The only thing I’m aware of that could drastically change this now is some focus groups saying they would stay home and not vote for Trump; or vote for RFK instead if Trump is sentenced to prison. That was supposed to be a known factor now but it got pushed to after the convention and after the ballots are locked. Are we really going to hang this election on one judge doing the right thing? or are we going to do what we have to in order to actually fight?
Yeah, polling is garbage in general but using it to see relative change is actually like the one thing that it’s good for.
So, your assertion is that Biden is slipping lower and lower and lower in the polls the more he does. You picked the one state where he’s slipped the most, to make that point. If I did the opposite, I could pick North Carolina, and say that gaining 1.7 points since before he did his press conference means he’s killing it, and that press conference restored the confidence of the voters.
Probably a fairly accurate metric – since you’re going to ignore, for reasons which will be obvious to anyone who knows what the national polls show, the national polls – could be to add up all the swing states and see how things have changed.
In the last week, Biden’s gained an average of 0.56 points in all the swing states. If you saying him losing 0.4 points in PA since the press conference means he’s losing ground, then I have demonstrated that zooming out to a non-cherry-picked-to-the-single-worst-state view shows the exact opposite happening.
Similarly, in the last month, Biden’s lost an average of 0.8 percentage points in all the swing states averaged together. You could write an article about how even in the face of an objectively catastrophic debate performance, less than 1% of the voters abandoned him, pointing to the resilience of his support because most of the voters (unlike the media) are smart enough to realize that one bad debate doesn’t all of a sudden mean that etc etc you get the idea. Oh, also, that means he’s been gaining ground back since the debate, after dipping lower than 0.8 points initially, which kind of makes sense since the debate was such a horrifying fuck-up.
See? Primary sources are fun. That’s all based on the Nate Silver chart of all swing states that you sent me.
I chose PA because it’s the one state we really need to win. Without PA we basically need everything on offer and a tough pick up like GA. And the national polling is a great topline, but it doesn’t predict the Electoral college very well.
And this isn’t just about the press conference. It’s about the debate, the spin afterwards, and the press conference. None of that has managed to bring his numbers back. And Nate Silver’s actual prediction, (which I’m not sure if the page will show without a subscription) is bad for democrats. If you want to go with his analysis we should already have switched to Harris.
If you want to go with his analysis we should already have switched to Harris.
Oh! If you’re saying that switching to Harris would be a good idea, that would be a totally logical and honestly not really that crazy thing that we could have talked about.
Some guy was coming in here talking about how every time Biden opens his mouth, his poll numbers get worse, and just kind of emphasizing this wild counterfactual in service of creating a narrative that didn’t exist. I was talking with that guy. If you see him, tell him I looked at the polls you sent me and he’s wrong.
Earlier, in the day, when introducing Vladimir Zelensky, he called him “President Putin.”
Say what you will about whether he’s able to beat the Mango Mussolini or not, but THAT has to be the biggest faux pas I’ve ever seen!
Had me laughing so hard I startled my cat 😂
This might have been 20 years ago. Some civic organization, probably on Martin Luther King weekend, held a tribute honoring some famous black men. One of the most prominent famous black men they invited was actor James Earl Jones – reasonable enough so far. So they called him up to the stage to present him with his honorary plaque made out to James Earl … Ray.
Yikes! 😬😂
That almost sounds like sabotage
i remember being incensed as a young man from seeing & hearing his fiery & well spoken anti-gay, anti-feminist, pro-segregationist views and seeing him morph into a doddering old man at the debate and plus this somehow make feel sorry for him now.
The Democrats have had YEARS to endorse anyone who was born after the Battle of the Bulge. With the election less than 4 months away, it is WAY too late to pick Biden’s successor.
They need to come with a campaign message that shows ordinary people why Biden is a better choice than Trump, which should be the easiest g*ddamn thing in the world.
It’s annoying that most everyone can understand this, but the media keeps pretending like it’s an open question.
Because they are pushing a narrative. They aren’t being honest that no one is prepared to take over, no one else has been campaigning. Even if people wanted a replacement, there isn’t one ready to take on the mantle.
They are intentionally sowing discord.
The establishment has been keeping his mental decline as secret as possible for quite some time now. They had the time and squandered it. Now the narrative of is he fit for the presidency is going to dominate any other factor to the election. If I’m being honest with myself, he’s done. We’re just currently salvaging as much as we can and push the never-trump narrative hard and pray.
The Democrat “voters” haven’t had a choice. It’s the Democrat party that has pushed for Biden so hard and not allowed any opportunity for voters to choice someone else before now.
The democratic party wants Biden as president.
I suspect the majority of Democrat voters do not want him to run again.
“Democrat voters” “Democrat party”
I asked about this curious phrasing in this comment - what’s your take on it? Why do you think there might be a notable overlap between the users who are so fed up with the Democratic Party that they’re against Biden, and the users who even though they are obviously left wing people, use a traditionally conservative turn of phrase?
I happen to be in this thread due to bouncing around, so I’ll explain anytime I use Democrat/Democratic/Republican:
I’ve had various liberals tell me Democrat was a form of dog whistle or sign I’m a right winger. One person started to dig into my mutual aid info trying to figure out if I was a Russian bot because I said “Democrat” instead of Democratic. I’ve tried to Democratic as a noun, and it felt grammatically incorrect. “I’m running as a Democatic.” “The current majority in the house is with the Democratics.”
Personally I think “Democrat” works for both candidate, party, and voter. “Biden is the Democrat’s Nominee” vs “Biden is the Democratic nominee”.
I have no idea if one is better than the other, but I tend to use one over the other when needed.
I’ve tried to Democratic as a noun, and it felt grammatically incorrect. “I’m running as a Democatic.” "The current majority in the house is with the Democratics.”
Well that sure is a totally normal human explanation.
Am I missing something here? I’ve had people say that I had to use that word otherwise I’m somehow on the payroll for the Republicans.
I do acknowledge that “Democrat” has been a form of… for lack of a better word, slur from Republican weirdos.
Serious explanation: “Democrat” as a noun is normal. “I’m running as a Democrat.” “The current majority in the house in with the Democrats.”
“Democratic” as an adjective is normal. “Democratic Party.”
“Democrat” as an adjective is super weird. I think it was originally intended as a slur, but to me it just sounds weird, like bad grammar. “Democrat Party.” Almost no one uses it that way except conservatives, because no one who doesn’t consume conservative media would even run across it.
I found your explanation very bizarre because something like “I’m running as a Democratic” is something I’ve never heard in my life. If someone actually did tell you that “Democrat” is a bad thing even as a noun, there was some severe miscommunication on someone’s part.
Apologies for being sarcastic about it
It doesn’t help I’m running short on sleep, autistic, and just not in a good mood today before the assassination attempt.
But yeah, I personally go “Democratic Party” for the party but a member of Congress is a Democrat. I’m registered Democratic Party, I am a Democrat, yadda yadda.
I found your explanation very bizarre because something like “I’m running as a Democratic” is something I’ve never heard in my life. If someone actually did tell you that “Democrat” is a bad thing even as a noun, there was some severe miscommunication on someone’s part.
Maybe, I just recall them claiming I was a fake American for doing it, and then saying my Polish friend was a form of Russian agent because he was born and lives in Poland. I can try to find the post but that was months ago.
Thank you for taking the time to explain it, Mozz.
Almost like… now hear me out… they don’t want to win…
This is called Manufacturing Consent.
